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k. 2. A. The VR Program;

Current Narrative:

The number of customers served by IDVR under WIOA has diminished. Historic rates of low unemployment across Idaho, new mandates created by WIOA, and COVID-19 are likely factors in this downturn. The Division has launched an outreach strategy to re-engage former customers, and Idaho’s unemployment rate has returned to near pre-pandemic levels with a November 2021 preliminary rate of 2.6 percent (BLS.gov).  While it can be difficult to accurately predict customer application rate in the unique conditions presented by the current labor market, the Division believes the downward trend in applications and plans will end and we can expect an unknown increase in applications for VR services.  IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts forecasts using increases of one, three and five percent service volume increases to project various cost scenarios and their potential impact on grant funds.  For the purposes of this section (K.2-K.4), the Division will utilize the three percent volume of services increase for FY 2022 and the five percent volume of services increase for FY 2023.  Due to uncertainty surrounding inflationary pressure, the Division has used FY 2021 one-year actual costs rather than the alternate five-year average cost model to better approximate higher anticipated costs.

IDVR has 5073 participants in plan and receiving services in the most recently completed fiscal projection model.  This includes 2010 participants under Most Significant Disability (MSD), 1675 participants under Significant Disability (SD), and 1388 participants classified under the Disability (D) severity categories.

Estimates of Customers in Plan Status (Receiving Services) for IDVR

 MSD SD D Total in Plan
 FFY 2021 Actual (100%)2010167513885073
 FFY 2022 Estimate (103%)2070172514305225
 FFY 2023 Estimate (105%)2111175914575327