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k. 2. A. The VR Program;

Current Narrative:

The number of customers served by IDVR is diminishing. Historic rates of low unemployment across Idaho and new mandates created by WIOA are likely factors in this recent downturn. However, it is obvious that unemployment will not remain at this level.  April 2020 preliminary data suggest Idaho’s unemployment rate has risen from 2.5 percent to 11.5 percent.  Consequently, the Division believes the downward trend in applications and plans will end and we can expect an unknown increase in applications for VR services.  IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts forecasts using increases of one, three and five percent service volume increases to project various cost scenarios and their potential impact on grant funds.  For the purposes of this section (K.2-K.4), the Division will utilize the three percent volume of services increase for FY 2020 and the five percent volume of services increase for FY 2021.

IDVR has 3895 participants in plan and receiving services in the most recently fiscal projection model.  This includes 1724 participants under Most Significant Disability (MSD), 1374 participants under Significant Disability (SD), and 797 participants classified under the Disability (D) severity categories.

Estimates of Customers in Plan Status (Receiving Services) for IDVR

  MSD SD D Total in Plan
Current (100%) 1724 1374 797 3895
FFY 2020 (103%) 1776 1415 821 4012
FFY 2021 (105%) 1810 1443 837 4090