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k. 4. The cost of services for the number of individuals estimated to be eligible for services. If under an order of selection, identify the cost of services for each priority category.

Current Narrative:

April 2020 preliminary data suggest Idaho’s unemployment rate has risen from 2.5 percent to 11.5 percent.  Consequently, the Division believes the downward trend in applications and plans will end and we can expect an unknown increase in applications for VR services.  IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts forecasts using increases of one, three and five percent to project various cost scenarios and their potential impact on grant funds.  For the purposes of this section (K.2-K.4), the Division will utilize the three percent volume of services increase for FY 2020 and the five percent volume of services increase for FY 2021.

Additionally, IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts fiscal projections using two models. One is a scenario using the five-year average cost per customer, and the second is a scenario using current YTD average costs per customer. 

As the Division has substantially modified policy post WIOA on SE, IDVR has selected the current year average costs for projections in this state plan.  As additional time elapses under the current SE provision model, the Division will consider switching these estimates to the five-year projections.  For the purposes of this plan the division believes the YTD projections represent the best model to project expenditures under current conditions.

FFY 2020 Service Cost Estimates    
 MSDSDDTotal
Estimated in Plan Status177614158214012
Estimated Cost per Plan$1,533.84$1,410.48$1,579.56 

$1,499.69
Estimated Customers on SE Plan484N/AN/A 
Average SE Services Cost$1179.90   
Estimated SE Annual Expenditure$571,189.38

 
  $571,189.38

 
Non-SE Plan Expenditure$2,152,480.98

 
$1,995,829.20

 
$1,296,818.76

 
$5,445,558.42

 
Total Estimated Annual Plan Cost$2,723,670.36

 
$1,995,829.20

 
$1,296,818.76

 
$6,016,747.80

 
FFY 2021 Service Cost Estimates    
 MSDSDDTotal
Estimated in Plan Status1810

 
1443

 
837

 
4090
Estimated Cost per Plan$1,533.84$1,410.48$1,579.56 

$1,499.69
Estimated Customers on SE Plan494N/AN/A 
Average SE Services Cost$1179.90   
Estimated SE Annual Expenditure$582,280.44

 
  $582,280.44

 
Non-SE Plan Expenditure$2,194,276.73

 
$2,035,322.64

 
$1,322,091.72

 
$5,551,691.09

 
Total Estimated Annual Plan Cost$2,776,250.40

 
$2,035,322.64

 
$1,322,091.72

 
$6,133,664.76