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  • II. Strategic Elements

    The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system.  The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs to support economic growth.  Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs. Where requirements identify the term “populations”, these must include individuals with barriers to employment as defined at WIOA Section 3.  This  includes displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals.  Additional populations include veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.

         

     

II. a. 1. A. Economic Analysis

The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions and trends in the State, including sub-State regions and any specific economic areas identified by the State.  This must include—

  • i. Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations

    Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which there is existing demand.

  • ii. Emerging Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations

    Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which demand is emerging.

  • iii. Employers’ Employment Needs

    With regard to the industry sectors and occupations identified in (A)(i) and (ii), provide an assessment of the employment needs of employers, including a description of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required, including credentials and licenses.

Current Narrative:

West Virginia’s economy is well on its way to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. West Virginia continues to address its low labor force participation and lower educational attainment, but new business relocation, investments in economic growth and workforce education, and a focus on transitioning from legacy industries with less employment today to high tech employment in manufacturing and other technologies presents opportunities for West Virginia workers. 

According to West Virginia Economic Outlook 2023-2027 produced by West Virginia University, many of the state’s economic indicators now surpass pre-pandemic levels and several have even managed to reach new highs. West Virginia’s economic growth prospects for the next five years are moderately positive overall.

The Economic Outlook highlights the following key indicators:

  • Employment fell by roughly 95,000 jobs in March and April 2020. As of late-summer 2022, preliminary data shows nearly 93,000 jobs have been regained—leaving the state nearly on par with its pre-pandemic level.
  • Several sectors have seen activity return to or surpass pre-pandemic levels, including construction and business services. Many sectors face high rates of unfilled job openings.
  • The state’s unemployment rate reached an all-time low of roughly 3.5 percent during the second quarter of 2022.
  • Only 55 percent of West Virginia’s adult population is either working or looking for work. This remains the lowest rate of labor force participation among all 50 states and is a key hurdle to economic growth.
  • Per capita personal income in West Virginia increased by more than 7 percent in 2021 and stands at roughly 76 percent of the national average.
  • West Virginia’s real GDP increased 4 percent in 2021, helping to offset the drop in economic output observed during 2020. The state’s topline measure of real economic output remains volatile, largely because of the state’s history and role as an energy producing state, and that volatility continues into 2022.

Existing and Emerging Economic Sectors 2

West Virginia’s economy is characterized by 11 major sectors: natural resources and mining; construction; manufacturing; trade, transportation, and utilities; information; financial activities; professional and business services; education and health services; leisure and hospitality; other services; and total government. Between 2018 and 2028, many of these sectors may see employment declines while others will experience growth.

West Virginia's economic landscape reveals a mix of positive and challenging trends across various sectors. Industries such as Accommodation and Food Services, Educational Services, and Transportation and Warehousing show steady employment growth, contributing to the state's economic stability.

In manufacturing, certain sub-industries like transportation equipment, nonmetallic mineral products, plastics, and rubber products are expected to grow, while others face declines. Navigating this diversity within manufacturing is key for effective economic planning.

However, challenges persist in sectors like Mining and Wholesale Trade, where significant declines in employment highlight the need for targeted strategies and support for affected communities.

Negative figures in Finance and Insurance, Utilities, Information, State Government (excluding education and hospitals), Federal Government (excluding post office), and Wholesale Trade emphasize the complexity of the economic landscape. Adapting to these shifts will require proactive measures and a diversified economic approach.

2  Unless otherwise noted, figures and data are produced by the West Virginia Labor Market Information unit.

Figure 1: West Virginia Industry Projections, 2020-2030

Figure 1: West Virginia Industry Projections, 2020-2030

Figure 2: West Virginia Employment Distribution by Sector, 2021

Figure 2: West Virginia Employment Distribution by Sector, 2021

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Projected employment trends in the manufacturing sector for West Virginia through 2030 present a varied landscape, featuring growth in some industries alongside declines in others. Noteworthy expansions are expected in transportation equipment, nonmetallic mineral products, plastics and rubber products, and primary metal manufacturing. Conversely, sectors such as printing and related support activities, electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing, and furniture and related product manufacturing anticipate significant declines.

Figure 3: West Virginia Manufacturing Projections, 2020-2030

Figure 3: West Virginia Manufacturing Projections, 2020-2030

Within the education and health services subsector, West Virginia is expected to experience a notable rise in ambulatory health care services, with hospitals following closely as the second-highest projected industry for growth from 2020 to 2030. Within this subsector there are no projected declines overall.

Figure 4: West Virginia Education and Health Services Projections, 2020-2030

Figure 4: West Virginia Education and Health Services Projections, 2020-2030

In the energy sector, coal and electricity production have experienced volatility over the past two years but are on track to recover somewhat from the downturn in production during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coal production has increased over 16% since 2020 and is expected to continue rising. Industrial and commercial electricity needs continue to increase as economic activity has increased after the pandemic recession. Despite these production increases, coal employment has not risen at the same pace to date, growing to 11,700 workers in 2021 from 11,650 in 2020, a significant decrease from 2019’s 14,500 workers. Preliminary data shows an increase in workers in 2022, with Q1 showing an 11% increase from the same time in 2021. 

Figure 5: West Virginia Regional Coal Production, 2007-2022

Figure 5: West Virginia Regional Coal Production, 2007-2022

 

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Future forecasts suggest that coal production numbers will likely return to pre-pandemic levels, and other sources of energy production may rise due to market pricing or policy decisions in the future. Employment numbers will follow similar trends with coal jobs remaining flat and natural gas jobs growing by approximately 5% a year, though increases in natural gas productivity could reduce labor demand and could cause weaker employment growth. 

Figure 6: West Virginia Coal and Natural Gas Output, 2005-2027

Figure 6: West Virginia Coal and Natural Gas Output, 2005-2027

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Figure 7: West Virginia Energy Sector Employment Forecast, 2006-2027

Figure 7: West Virginia Energy Sector Employment Forecast, 2006-2027

Source: WV Economic Outlook

The manufacturing sector remains a robust part of West Virginia’s economy and is a reason the state is a part of global economic trade. New growth in automotive manufacturing, metals, and food and beverage manufacturing have all contributed to increased rates of production that are expected to continue. Despite this progress, there have been pandemic-related difficulties in manufacturing because of the disruption of global supply chains and closures of two major plants in the state, and there are concerns about impacts of rising interest rates, cost of capital, and potential recessions leading to further downturn of production, and thus employment. That said, the overall outlook is positive with 1) 11 of 14 subsectors expected to increase their employment levels and 2) total manufacturing productivity expected to continue rising. 

Figure 8: West Virginia Manufacturing Employment Growth Forecast, 2011-2027

Figure 8: West Virginia Manufacturing Employment Growth Forecast, 2011-2027

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Figure 9: West Virginia Manufacturing Sector Productivity, 2007-2027

Figure 9: West Virginia Manufacturing Sector Productivity, 2007-2027

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Construction was one of the first sectors to surpass pre-pandemic levels of activity, and output is expected to continue to grow significantly in the long run. Employment openings have remained high, which has hindered some productivity, but employment is expected to grow by 1.1% per year through the end of 2027. Significant utility sector projects (i.e., Berkshire Hathaway Energy in Jackson County, Competitive Power Ventures, and GreenPower Motors) and public works projects (i.e., the Roads to Prosperity program) will buoy the growth of the construction sector. The state has undertaken various legislative initiatives, such as the Build WV program, to encourage and incentivize construction in some aspects, like housing markets.

Figure 10: West Virginia Construction Employment by Type, 2008-2021

Figure 10: West Virginia Construction Employment by Type, 2008-2021

Source: WV Economic Outlook

Looking region by region, the employment trajectory from 2020 to 2030 shows significant similarities in growing and declining industries. Industries expecting expanded employment across regions include health services (ambulatory and hospitals) and food service and drinking places. Most regions are expected to see an employment decline in stores (including clothing, electronics, food and beverage, and personal care) and gasoline stations. Even with these similarities, each region differs in other industries that will grow or shrink employment opportunities and the overall impact of these changes. 

In West Virginia's Workforce Development Region 1, the Food Services and Drinking Places industry is set for robust growth, projecting a significant increase of 1,646 jobs at an annual rate of 2.2%, reflecting evolving consumer preferences. Concurrently, the Ambulatory Health Care Services sector anticipates notable expansion, emphasizing the region's commitment to healthcare infrastructure. Declining sectors, such as General Merchandise Stores and Health and Personal Care Stores, signaling the need for strategic interventions.

Figure 11: WDR 1 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 11: WDR 1 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Based on annual growth rate, growing industries in Workforce Development Region 2 are contained largely within healthcare and social assistance. The health services sector contains the greatest numeric growth of industries on the list and includes ambulatory health care services, hospitals, and social assistance. Other growing industries include food services and drinking places and administrative and support services. The greatest declines by growth rate in WDR 2 are found in miscellaneous store retailers, mining (except oil and gas), and telecommunications. 

Figure 12: WDR 2 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 12: WDR 2 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

In Workforce Development Region 3, the top growing industries are contained largely in health care and professional and business services. The health care sector contains the greatest numeric growth of industries on the list and includes ambulatory health care services and social assistance. Growth in professional and business services includes professional, scientific, and technical services, and management of companies and enterprises. The greatest declines in WDR 3 are found in merchant wholesalers, durable goods; clothing and clothing accessories stores; and health and personal care stores as many residents have turned to online shopping. 

Figure 13: WDR 3 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 13: WDR 3 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

In Workforce Development Region 4, growing industries are contained largely within the health care sector, showing the greatest numeric growth on the list and including ambulatory health care services, hospitals, and social assistance. Other growing industries include food services and drinking places and heavy and civil engineering construction. The greatest declines in WDR 4 occur in clothing and clothing accessories stores, health and personal care stores, and merchant wholesalers, durable goods. 

Figure 14: WDR 4 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 14: WDR 4 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

In Workforce Development Region 5, the health care sector contains the greatest numeric growth of industries on the list and includes ambulatory health care services, hospitals, and social assistance. Other growing industries include food services and drinking places and administrative and support services. The greatest industry declines in WDR 5 based on the growth rate include merchant wholesalers (durable goods), fabricated metal product manufacturing, mining (except oil and gas), health and personal care stores and electronics and appliance stores. 

Figure 15: WDR 5 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 15: WDR 5 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

The industries in Workforce Development Region 6 projecting the greatest growth through 2030 are found largely within the health care and social assistance sector, including social assistance, ambulatory health care services, and hospitals. Food services and drinking places and administrative and support services are anticipating employment growth as well. Declining industries in this region include clothing and clothing accessory stores, health and personal care stores, and merchant wholesalers, durable goods. 

Figure 16: WDR 6 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 16: WDR 6 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

In Workforce Development Region 7, industries showing growth through 2030 are scattered across economic sectors. Industries with the highest projected growth rate include waste management and remediation services, social assistance, ambulatory health care services, and chemical manufacturing. The greatest projected declines in WDR 7 are found in fabricated metal product manufacturing, clothing and clothing accessories stores, and real estate. 

Figure 17: WDR 7 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Figure 17: WDR 7 Industry Projections 2020-2030 

Occupational Demand 2020-2030

West Virginia's workforce is on the brink of a positive transformation, with significant projected growth in key occupation groups from 2020 to 2030. Sectors such as Food Preparation and Serving, Healthcare, and Transportation are poised to flourish, offering exciting opportunities for targeted employment programs and forward-looking training initiatives.

Notably, the Food Preparation and Serving sector anticipates an expansion of 10,542 jobs. This aligns with the region's emphasis on hospitality and culinary services, promising employment opportunities in the food industry. Healthcare continues to be a focal point, with Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations projecting substantial growth of 9,949 jobs, and Healthcare Support roles adding 8,669 positions, reflecting a dedication to enhancing medical services and support infrastructure. Transportation and Material Moving occupations forecast an increase of 6,557 jobs, underscoring the importance of logistics and transportation in the state's economic development. Addressing this workforce need can contribute to the overall efficiency of the state's transportation infrastructure. Additionally, the Education, Training, and Library sector is expected to see notable growth, projecting an addition of 3,580 jobs, emphasizing the state's commitment to educational advancement.

While these sectors anticipate growth, other areas require targeted attention because of projected declines. The Office and Administrative Support sector anticipates a decline of 1,240 jobs, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions to address shifts in administrative roles and workflow. Understanding these occupational dynamics provides valuable insights for federal funding allocation, ensuring resources are directed towards fostering growth in high-demand sectors and addressing employment challenges for residents and businesses.

These overall projections for 2020-2030 highlight the potential for a dynamic and resilient workforce in West Virginia's future. By aligning resources with emerging opportunities, we can foster a thriving job market, ensuring the state's position for sustained success. 

Figure 18: WV Projected Growth of Occupational Groups 2020-2030

Figure 18: WV Projected Growth of Occupational Groups 2020-2030

At a more granular level, The Mid-Atlantic Career Consortium (MACC) research and analytics on staff-assisted job orders for WV illuminates current trends of in-demand occupations across sectors. Personal Care Aides stand at the pinnacle with a formidable count of 1000, a testament to the burgeoning demand for personalized caregiving services. Alongside Home Health Aides, at 840, we can see the substantial prioritization of healthcare services. 

In other sectors, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers are in high demand at 881 instances, underscoring the integral role of logistics in the contemporary economic landscape. 

617 job orders for Correctional Officers and Jailers reflect an unwavering commitment to public safety. Construction Laborers, totaling 591, contribute significantly to the workforce, alongside Security Guards and Patrol, who make a formidable presence with 588 job orders. Production Workers, All Other, account for 575 instances, showcasing the diverse facets of industrial production. Occupations such as Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (416), Customer Service Representatives (340), and Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Greenhouse (332) underscore the varied demands within the economy. 

MACC’s nuanced data further provides a comprehensive snapshot of the dynamic occupational landscape, allowing us to see the rich economic intricacies of employment across the state. 

Figure 19: Top 15 Demand Occupations in Fiscal Year 2023

Figure 19: Top 15 Demand Occupations in Fiscal Year 2023

Source: Workforce WV MACC Staff Assisted Job Orders

Looking to the future, the top five occupational groups with the greatest number of annual openings through 2030 are Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations, Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, Healthcare Support Occupations, Transportation and Material Moving Occupations, and Education, Training, and Library Occupations. Occupations with large employment within these five groups include Fast Food Cooks, Waiters and Waitresses, Registered Nurses, Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Nursing Assistants, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Stockers and Order Fillers, and Elementary School Teachers. 

Figure 20: Projected Job Openings by Occupational Group 2020-2030. 

Figure 20: Projected Job Openings by Occupational Group 2020-2030. 

West Virginia is poised for economic growth and vitality, as indicated by the projected job openings in various occupational titles. Closer analysis shows the potential and prospects for the state, highlighting key occupations that are set to play a pivotal role in its economic evolution.

  1. Home Health and Personal Care Aides (Projected Openings: 4,971):
    • As the demand for personalized care services continues to rise, the significant number of projected openings for Home Health and Personal Care Aides reflects a burgeoning sector that provides essential support to individuals and families.
  2. Fast Food and Counter Workers (Projected Openings: 3,101):
    • West Virginia's hospitality and food industry is on an upward trajectory, with a substantial demand for Fast Food and Counter Workers. This surge signifies the state's thriving culinary scene and the role it plays in the local economy.
  3. Cooks, Restaurant (Projected Openings: 2,872):
    • The restaurant industry is a key contributor to West Virginia's economic landscape, with a growing need for skilled culinary professionals. The demand for Restaurant Cooks highlights the potential for expansion within the state's vibrant dining sector.
  1. Registered Nurses (Projected Openings: 2,564):
    • Healthcare continues to be a cornerstone of West Virginia's economic growth. The projected openings for Registered Nurses underscore the state's commitment to enhancing its healthcare infrastructure, providing opportunities for skilled professionals.
  2. Stockers and Order Fillers (Projected Openings: 1,808):
    • The logistics and distribution sector is witnessing a surge in demand, with Stockers and Order Fillers playing a crucial role in the supply chain. This points to the state's strategic position as a hub for commerce and trade.
  3. Waiters and Waitresses (Projected Openings: 1,669):
    • West Virginia's hospitality industry is flourishing, with an increasing demand for service professionals. The projected openings for Waiters and Waitresses signify a positive trend in the state's tourism and dining experiences.
  4. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (Projected Openings: 1,343):
    • Transportation remains a key driver of West Virginia's economic potential. The demand for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers highlights the state's role in facilitating the movement of goods and services.

As West Virginia looks ahead, the projected job openings in these key occupations paint a picture of a state brimming with potential and growth. The diverse range of sectors, from healthcare to hospitality, logistics to culinary arts, positions West Virginia for a dynamic and prosperous future. Embracing these opportunities will not only fuel economic expansion but also contribute to the well-being and vitality of the state and its residents.

The top five occupations with the largest annual openings through 2030 include Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Fast Food and Counter Workers, Cooks, Restaurant, Registered Nurses, and Stockers and Order Fillers. Other occupations with large projected annual openings which may pay higher wages than some of the top five include Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Medical Assistants, Construction Laborers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, and Nurse Practitioners. 

Figure 21: Annual Job Openings for Select Occupations 2020-2030. 

Figure 21: Annual Job Openings for Select Occupations 2020-2030. 

Figure 21 B: In Demand Occupational Wages in the Fiscal Year 2023

Figure 21 B: In Demand Occupational Wages in the Fiscal Year 2023

The economic landscape in the employment sector is marked by diverse trends across various occupations in the specified time frame. Notably, Nurse Practitioners lead with a notable growth rate of 5.7%, reflecting a surge in demand for advanced healthcare services. The profession is expected to add 92 new positions, underscoring the pivotal role of healthcare practitioners in the evolving medical landscape. In other healthcare fields, Medical and Health Services Managers, with a growth rate of 3.1%, are poised to contribute significantly to healthcare administration, reflecting the sector's organizational expansion. Concurrently, Medical Assistants, Home Health, and Personal Care Aides all are expected grow over 2.5%, addressing the increasing need for healthcare support services. Meanwhile, Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (1.4%) and Registered Nurses (1.1%) anticipate maintaining stable rates with small-modest amounts of growth.

In the realm of food services, Restaurant Cooks show a growth rate of 4.0%, adding 287 jobs, indicative of the sustained demand for dining services. The growth rate for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers is 1.9%, reflecting the ongoing demand for skilled supervision in this sector. Similarly, Waiters and Waitresses (1.8%) and Stockers and Order Fillers (1.7%) demonstrate similarly modest growth rates, emphasizing the consistent demand for customer service and logistics roles. Fast Food and Counter Works are expected to remain in stable demand with some possibilities for growth at 1.4%.

In other areas, Passenger Vehicle Drivers, Receptionists, and Information Clerks show growth rates of 1.4%, indicating stable demand but with a more modest expansion. Meanwhile, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, and Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners contribute to the employment sector with growth rates of 1.2%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively, reflecting a balanced employment outlook.

Through this comprehensive overview of the employment landscape of West Virginia, we can see the nuanced growth patterns across various occupations, underscoring the importance of healthcare, culinary services, and support roles, while acknowledging the steady contributions from diverse occupations within the state.

Figure 22: Annual Job Growth Rate for Select Occupations 2020-2030. 

Figure 22: Annual Job Growth Rate for Select Occupations 2020-2030. 

Employers’ Employment Needs

With the intensive growth of Healthcare and Social Assistance industries through 2030, the need for education for higher-skill workers is anticipated. The range of knowledge, skills, and abilities needed in these professions are high, and in order to fulfill demand for these positions, educational structures that teach both prospective and current nurses are needed to maintain a highly skilled workforce in these necessary fields. 

Figure 23: Model Knowledge, Skills, & Ability for Registered Nurse 

Figure 23: Model Knowledge, Skills, & Ability for Registered Nurse 

Knowledge needed for the top five healthcare occupations in the state, according to current employees, includes customer and personal services, English languages, psychology, medicine and dentistry, and therapy and counseling. Educational systems that teach this knowledge to potential nurses and help current nurses continue their education to stay on top of changing healthcare needs are required to fulfill the demand for skilled healthcare workers in the state. 

Figure 24: Knowledge Assessment for Top 5 Healthcare Occupations 

Figure 24: Knowledge Assessment for Top 5 Healthcare Occupations 

Numerous occupations in West Virginia require licensing. This is to ensure the competency of those practicing these professions, and in many cases the safety of those utilizing their services. There are approximately 110 occupations that require licensure in the State of West Virginia, eleven of which are in-demand occupations. The majority of these in-demand occupations are found in the healthcare field, such as Physician Assistant, Registered Nurse, Licensed Practical Nurse, Pharmacist, Physical Therapy Assistant, Radiologic Technologist, and Dental Hygienist. The remaining in-demand occupations that require licensing include Accountant, Attorney, Elementary School Teacher, and Social Worker. Licensing requires certain amounts of education to fulfill the needs of the license and for applicants to gain the knowledge needed to pass any licensing exams. To adequately license the workers who can fill these in-demand occupations, we will have to continue creating educational opportunities for people to gain the knowledge, skills, and attitudes needed to succeed in these positions.