Located in:
- II. Strategic Elements
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system. The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs to support economic growth. Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs. Where requirements identify the term “populations”, these must include individuals with barriers to employment as defined at WIOA Section 3. This includes displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals. Additional populations include veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions, economic development strategies, and labor market in which the State’s workforce system and programs will operate.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
II. a. 1. A. Economic Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions and trends in the State, including sub-State regions and any specific economic areas identified by the State. This must include—
i. Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which there is existing demand.
ii. Emerging Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which demand is emerging.
iii. Employers’ Employment Needs
With regard to the industry sectors and occupations identified in (A)(i) and (ii), provide an assessment of the employment needs of employers, including a description of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required, including credentials and licenses.
Current Narrative:
i. Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Employment is projected to grow more slowly in Indiana between 2021-2031 than it has from 2011-2021. The most recent projections available indicate the number of jobs in the State will increase by just 5.11 percent between 2021 and 2031, from 3,072,578 to 3,229,597, or just over 15,700 jobs annually.[1] In contrast, employment grew by 6.78 percent between 2011 and 2021.[2]
Like much of the nation, over the next several years, Indiana will experience an increase in the number of workers exiting the labor force due to retirement. Labor force availability is a direct impact limiting Indiana’s potential for employment growth. As of 2020, the share of the workforce 45-64 years of age was 37.0%.[3] By 2030, the percentage of individuals 45-64 years of age that are projected to retire and begin exiting the labor force is 35.2%. The table below details Indiana’s projected labor force share by age in 2030, organized by Economic Growth Region. Indiana has organized the 92 counties in Indiana into twelve EGRs.
The decline in Indiana’s birth rates has been a continual trend. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of Hoosiers between the ages of 0 to 4 years has decreased by 0.6% from 2010-2018, an average of 2,569 individuals. The demand for future generations of workers is critical to filling the open positions left by the baby boomer generation.
Because Indiana’s labor force will see an increasing number of retirements over the next decade, many industries in the State will have a high level of job openings even as they experience limited net increases in total employment. Other industries will see both increasing retirements as well as net increases in employment. It is these industries that face the greatest potential for labor shortages over the next decade. Thus, the workforce needs of the Indiana economy will be far greater than is apparent by a simple examination of net job growth numbers.
[1] Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development
[2] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Industry Table, 2-digit NAICS, 2011-2021
[3] Source: STATS Indiana, using data from the Indiana Business Research Center, IU Kelley School of Business
Existing Industry Demand (2-digit NAICS)
The ten sectors in Indiana by employment size at the 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) in 2022, are listed in Table 2: Top Sectors by Employment in Indiana, 2022, 2-digit NAICS.
Table 3 benchmarks the share of employment in Indiana’s top industry sectors to neighboring states in the Midwest. Manufacturing is significantly more important to Indiana’s economy than at the national level, accounting for 17.4% of jobs compared to 8.7%. Indiana leads the nation in terms of manufacturing employment density. All other industries are within a percentage point of the national share of employment with the exception of Professional and Technical Services, which only accounts for 4.6% of Indiana’s employment compared to 7.2% for the nation.
Table 4 benchmarks growth rates in Indiana’s top industry sectors from 2021-2022 to neighboring states in the Midwest. With the exception of Construction and Professional and Technical Services, Indiana’s growth is slower than the nation’s.
- Manufacturing
The Midwest is synonymous with manufacturing and Indiana is no exception. In 2022, the manufacturing sector represented the greatest share of the Hoosier workforce with 541,010, or over 17% of all jobs. This represents a slight decrease of 692 jobs from 2018 but is projected to increase by 1.74% over the next ten years, adding over 9,100 jobs to the Hoosier economy. According to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, manufacturing jobs increased 3.1% from 2021-2022. In comparison, Wisconsin, which has the next highest percentage share of manufacturing jobs in the Midwest, had a 2.3% increase in manufacturing jobs from 2021-2022. Nationally, manufacturing employment had an increase of 3.7%, indicating a rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among the top five Indiana manufacturing subsectors in 2021, the following are projected to experience employment declines by 2031: Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (-443 jobs); Machinery Manufacturing (-4,899 jobs); and Primary Metal Manufacturing (-2,426 jobs). However, Transportation Equipment Manufacturing, the largest manufacturing subsector in Indiana, is projected to add the most jobs by 2031 (+7,551 jobs).[1] The average annual wage for manufacturing in Indiana is $72,420, which is significantly higher than the sector’s national average of $60,870.[2] This may indicate that Indiana’s manufacturing workforce is highly skilled and specialized and operating in a competitive talent landscape.
With nearly a quarter of the manufacturing sector’s workforce 55 years and older, Indiana is focused on adapting workforce training programs and technology to ensure small, medium, and large-sized manufacturers are equipped with the talent needed for the future of manufacturing.[3]
- Health Care and Social Assistance
Health care and social assistance is a rapidly growing sector in Indiana, due in part to Indiana’s aging population, including those from the baby boomer generation. This sector, second largest to manufacturing, recorded 444,982 jobs in 2022 and is projected to add the most jobs of any sector by 2031 (+45,029 jobs). That represents a nearly 10.5% increase in jobs over a ten-year period. 2031 projections indicate that health care and social assistance subsector employment numbers will increase. Among the top include Ambulatory Health Care Services (+21,903 jobs); Social Assistance (+12,922 jobs); Hospitals (+7,154 jobs); and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (+3,050 jobs).[4]
Health care and social assistance has a strong talent pipeline, with nearly 66% of its workforce being between the ages of 25-54 years of age.[5] Retirement risk for this sector in Indiana is average in comparison to the national average. The national average for an area the size of Indiana is 104,688 employees 55 or older. In Indiana, there are 98,376 employees.[6] The average annual wage for health care and social assistance jobs in Indiana is $57,528, which is less than the national average of $63,710.[7]
- Retail Trade
Similar to national trends, retail trade in Indiana has remained among one of the top sectors in the State by employment count. The 2022 employment size for the sector was 315,597, however, by 2031, the number of jobs is projected to decrease by 4,749. This is the largest projected decrease in jobs between 2021-2031. Retail trade subsectors contributing to this decrease in jobs include Food and Beverage Stores (-4,728 jobs); Gasoline Stations (-1,105 jobs); Electronics and Appliance Stores (-857 jobs); Health and Personal Care Stores (-469 jobs); Clothing and Clothing Accessory Stores (-282 jobs); and Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores (-140 jobs). Subsectors that are projected to add jobs include Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (+45,341 jobs); and Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers (+32,814 jobs).[8]
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retail trade experienced sharp declines in employment as many retailers and consumers engaged in contactless shopping during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, growth in e-commerce, automation, and industry consolidation accelerated the long-term trends of less workers in retail trade.[9] Fewer workers will be required to meet the projected growth in output. The percentage of retail trade jobs in Indiana (10.1%) mirrors the national percentage share of jobs (10.5%). According to QCEW data, the average annual salary for retail trade jobs in Indiana is $35,995, the second lowest among 2-digit sectors in the State. This is also lower than the national annual average salary of $40,420.[10]
- Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation and food services employed 266,222 Hoosiers in 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of jobs in this sector dipped down to 247,947 in 2021. The sector has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels of employment (268,995 in 2018) but is on track to recover lost jobs. Over the next ten years, it is estimated that the sector will experience a 10% increase in jobs, however it is also associated with the lowest average annual salary of any other sector in the State at $21,558.[11] For comparison, the annual median salary for Indiana is $42,100.[12] The percentage of accommodation and food services jobs in Indiana is higher than all other Midwest states, with the exception of Wisconsin, but is six percentage points behind the national percentage. Retirement risk for this sector is low in Indiana. Accommodation and food services subsectors that are projected to contribute to employment growth include Food Services and Drinking Place (+22,265 jobs); and Accommodation, including Hotels and Motels (+4,153 jobs).[13]
- Educational Services
The educational services sector is comprised of establishments that provide instruction and training on a variety of subjects. Subsectors include elementary and secondary schools, junior colleges, colleges & universities, etc. In 2022, the sector employed 241,167 individuals and is projected to add another 13,585 by 2031. From 2018 to 2022, this sector lost 8,873 jobs, representing one of the larger declines in total jobs of all industries in Indiana over this five-year period. The pandemic played havoc on educational services resulting in a decline of nearly 14,000 jobs in 2020 alone.[14] The average annual wage for a job in the educational services sector in Indiana according to QCEW data is $49,939, which is lower than the national average of $69,190 for this sector.[15]
- Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
The administrative and support and waste management and remediation services sector represents 6.2% of all Hoosier jobs (192,204 jobs total). The average annual salary for jobs in this sector in Indiana is $53,811, which places it near the bottom of high-wage sectors in the State.[16]
- Transportation and Warehousing
In 2022, the transportation and warehousing sector employed 181,078 Hoosiers and is projected to add 18,310 jobs by 2031 – an 11.3% increase in jobs. The average annual salary for transportation and warehousing jobs in Indiana is $68,818, which falls slightly below the State average of $69,708.[17]
- Construction
The construction sector employed 156,366 Hoosiers in 2022 and is projected to add just over 1,500 jobs by 2031 (151,093 jobs). The average annual salary for jobs in this sector in Indiana is $82,569, more than $12,000 than the State average annual salary.[18] While the retirement risk is low for construction, it struggles to close the gender gap. The percent of construction jobs in Indiana held by males is 85.4% compared to 14.6% of females, as reported by Lightcast. By 2031, the construction subsector, Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction, is projected to experience a decline of 1,087 jobs. Meanwhile, Specialty Trade Contractors are projected to add 1,728 jobs.[19]
- Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
With an employment size of 142,934 in 2022, the professional, scientific, and technical services sector is among the highest paid top sectors, earning an average annual salary of $83,707 and has demonstrated continual growth over the last ten years. Jobs in this sector require a high degree of expertise and training and perform services such as architectural and engineering design services; computer services; legal advice and representation; accounting, bookkeeping, and payroll services; etc.
- Public Administration
Public Administration employment data, provided by Indiana Department of Workforce Development, excludes public sector education and hospital employment. The sector had 129,625 jobs in 2022, representing 4.2% of Hoosier jobs, but is projected to lose 1,611 jobs by 2031. That represents less than 1% decline in jobs over the ten-year period.
[1] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Analyzed by Indiana Department of Workforce Development
[2] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[3] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics
[4] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Analyzed by Indiana Department of Workforce Development
[5] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics
[6] Note: Lightcast derives national average values by taking the national value for a sector and scaling it down to account for the difference in overall workforce size between the nation and Indiana. The values represent the national average adjusted for region size.
[7] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[8] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Analyzed by Indiana Department of Workforce Development
[9] Source: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-11/retail-trade-employment-before-during-and-after-the-pandemic.htm
[10] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[11] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[12] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[13] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Analyzed by Indiana Department of Workforce Development
[14] Source: Quarterly Employment and Wage Statistics Survey, 2022
[15] Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) Survey, 2022
[16] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics
[17] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Industry Table
[18] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Industry Table
[19] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Analyzed by Indiana Department of Workforce Development
Existing Occupational Demand (2-digit SOC)
The top occupations in Indiana by base employment in 2021 are detailed in Table 5: Occupations by Employment in Indiana, 2021, 2-digit SOC. Annual exits are defined as annual exits from the occupation, leaving the labor force. Annual transfers are defined as annual transfers from occupation to another. Annual openings are defined as the annual amount of openings for that occupation.
Rounding out the top five occupations in Indiana by employment size are:
- Office and Administrative Support Occupations
With 375,641 jobs in 2021, this occupation represents the largest share of jobs in Indiana at the 2-digit SOC level. In 2021, Office and Administrative Support Occupations had the second highest total of annual exits from the labor force and faced significant transfers, or movement to a different occupation. The total annual openings in 2021 for Office and Administrative Support Occupations was 43,392, which was the third most of any occupational group. The typical entry-level education for Office and Administrative Support Occupations is a high school diploma or equivalent. Less than 5 years of work experience is typically required for this occupation and little to no on-the-job training is required. The national annual median salary for Office and Administrative Support Occupations was $38,050 in May 2021, which was lower than the national annual median salary for all occupations of $45,760 and lower than the State annual median salary of $42,100.[1]
Office and Administrative Support Occupations in Indiana are concentrated in the following industry sectors: Government (56,850 jobs; 15.1% of total), Health Care and Social Assistance (55,619 jobs; 14.8% of total), Finance and Insurance (41,018 jobs; 10.9% of total), and Manufacturing (36,225 jobs; 9.6% of total).[2]
- Production Occupations
Production Occupations represented 365,463 jobs in 2021 in Indiana. Among the top five occupations, Production Occupations has the lowest number of annual exits from the labor force (15,723 workers). The annual number of transfers for Production Occupations was 25,984 workers. This represents the number of workers choosing to leave this occupation annually. The total annual openings for Production Occupations in Indiana in 2021 was 41,823. The typical entry-level education for this occupation group is a high school diploma or equivalent. Less than 5 years of work experience is typically required for this occupation and little to no on-the-job training is required. The national annual median salary for Production Occupations was $37,710 in May 2021, which was lower than the national annual median salary for all occupations of $45,760 and lower than the State annual median salary of $42,100.[3]
Production Occupations in Indiana are concentrated in Manufacturing (306,657 jobs; 84.8% of total), Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (17,817 jobs; 4.9% of total), Wholesale Trade (7,416 jobs; 2.1% of total), and Retail Trade (6,714 jobs; 1.9% of total).[4]
- Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
The 2021 employment size for Transportation and Material Moving Occupations was 348,145. With 30,499 workers, this occupation represents the largest number of annual transfers of any other occupation in Indiana and has the second greatest number of annual total openings (52,032 openings). The typical entry-level education for Transportation and Material Moving Occupations is a high school diploma or equivalent. Less than 5 years of work experience is typically required for this occupation and little to no on-the-job training is required. The national annual median salary for this group was $36,860 in May 2021, which was lower than the national annual median salary for all occupations of $45,760 and State annual median salary of $42,100.[5]
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations in Indiana are concentrated Transportation and Warehousing (121,067 jobs; 34.9% of total), Retail Trade (55,839 jobs; 16.1% of total), Manufacturing (48,590 jobs; 14.0% of total), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (36,220 jobs; 10.5% of total).[6]
- Sales and Related Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations are the fourth largest occupation group at the 2-digit SOC level in Indiana in 2021 with 289,296 jobs. Among the top five occupations, Sales and Related Occupations had the lowest number of annual transfers, or movement to a different occupation (21,923 transfers). The annual total number of openings for this occupation group in 2021 was 38,462. The typical entry-level education for Sales and Related Occupations is a high school diploma or equivalent. Less than 5 years of work experience is typically required for this occupation and little to no on-the-job training is required. The national annual median salary for Sales and Related Occupations was $30,600 in May 2021, which was lower than the national annual median salary for all occupations of $45,760 and State annual median salary of $42,100.[7]
Sales and Related Occupations in Indiana are concentrated in Retail Trade (162,928 jobs; 58.7% of total), Wholesale Trade (28,839 jobs; 10.4% of total), Finance and Insurance (20,344 jobs; 7.3% of total), and Manufacturing (14,565 jobs; 5.2% of total).[8]
- Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
The 2021 employment size for Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations was 259,697 workers. This occupation group had the greatest number of annual exits (23,697) and second greatest number of annual transfers (27,404). Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations had the greatest share of annual total openings among all 2-digit SOC occupations in Indiana in 2021 (13.0%; 53,455 openings). The typical entry-level education for Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is a high school diploma or equivalent. Less than 5 years of work experience is typically required for this occupation and little to no on-the-job training is required. The national annual median salary for Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations was $28,400 in May 2021, which was lower than the national annual median salary for all occupations of $45,760 and lower than the State annual median salary of $42,100.[9]
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations in Indiana are concentrated in Accommodation and Food Services (208,450 jobs; 80.4% of total), Health Care and Social Assistance (13,922 jobs; 5.4% of total), Government (10,962 jobs; 4.2% of total), and Retail Trade (10,574 jobs; 4.1% of total).[10]
[1] Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook
[2] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Inverse Staffing Patterns, Office and Administrative Support Occupations
[3] Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook
[4] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Inverse Staffing Patterns, Production Occupations
[5] Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook
[6] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Inverse Staffing Patterns, Transportation & Material Moving Occupations
[7] Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook
[8] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Inverse Staffing Patterns, Sales & Related Occupations
[9] Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook
[10] Source: Lightcast 2023.3, Inverse Staffing Patterns, Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
ii. Emerging Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Emerging Demand in Existing Industry Sectors
The top projected industry sectors in Indiana by 2031 mirror those in 2021, with the top six sectors remaining the largest employed sectors in both years: manufacturing; health care and social assistance; retail trade; accommodation and food services; educational services; and administrative and support and waste management and remediation services.
Over the ten-year period, sectors that are projected to see greatest increase in employment include health care and social assistance (+45,029 jobs); accommodation and food services (+26,418 jobs); professional, scientific, and technical services (+20,845 jobs); transportation and warehousing (+18,310 jobs); and educational services (+13,585 jobs). The only sectors that are projected to see a decrease in employment in that time period are retail trade (-4,749 jobs); government (-1,611 jobs); and utilities (-879 jobs).
Sectors with the greatest percent change between 2021-2031 include professional, scientific, and technical services (+15.92%); arts, entertainment, and recreation (+14.27%); transportation and warehousing (+11.30%); accommodation and food services (+10.70%); and health care and social assistance (+10.42%).
Drilling deeper into the 3-digit NAICS level (i.e., subsectors), the top projected subsectors by employment in 2031 include educational services (251,230 jobs); food services and drinking places (250,079 jobs); administrative and support services (181,599 jobs); ambulatory health care services (177,952 jobs); and hospitals (155,361 jobs). Subsectors that are projected to see greatest increase in employment between 2021-2031 include food services and drinking places (+22,265 jobs); ambulatory health care services (+21,903 jobs); professional, scientific, and technical services (+20,845 jobs); educational services (+ 13,585 jobs); and social assistance (+12,922 jobs).
The top projected occupations at the 2-digit SOC in Indiana by 2031, as detailed in Table 8, include transportation and material moving occupations (376,107 jobs); production occupations (366,626 jobs); office and administrative support occupations (361,695 jobs); sales and related occupations (285,665 jobs); and food preparation and serving related occupations (283,240 jobs).
From 2021-2031, all occupation groups at the 2-digit SOC level are projected to experience an increase in jobs, with the exception of office and administrative support occupations (-13,946 jobs) and sales and related occupations (-3,631 jobs) – both of which are among the largest occupation groups in the State. Occupation groups with the largest projected increase in the ten-year period include transportation and material moving occupations (+27,962 jobs); food preparation and serving related occupations (+23,543 jobs); healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (+17,263 jobs); healthcare support occupations (+16,663 jobs); and business and financial operations occupations (+10,662 jobs).
The automation index score is provided via Lightcast which analyzes the potential automation risk of occupations based on job task content, derived from O*NET. Index scores above 100 have an above average risk of automation while occupations with an automation index below 100 have a below average risk of automation.[1] Having a higher-than-average risk of automation means that a relatively high percent of workers’ time and tasks will be spent using, managing, and maintaining computerized and/or automated processes and systems. Occupations in Indiana (at the 2-digit SOC level) that are at highest risk of automation include food preparation and serving related occupations (125.4); construction and extraction occupations (123.1); building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations (122.5); production occupations (113.6); and transportation and material moving occupations (111.0) – the occupational group with the greatest projected employment in 2031.
[1] Lightcast combines data with the Frey and Osborne findings at the occupation level and identifies which job tasks are 'at risk' and which are resilient. Lightcast incorporates data to identify where occupations cluster in industries facing disruption, and where workers' skills mean their nearest job options are also facing automation risk.
Table 9 details the top 20 projected occupations by employment in Indiana at the 6-digit SOC level. Top occupations at this level by employment in 2031 include laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (103,717 jobs); fast food and counter workers (93,052 jobs); retail salespersons (81,988 jobs); miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators (80,980 jobs); and registered nurses (70,629 jobs).
Among all subsectors, those that are projected to see the greatest increase in employment between 2021-2031 include home health and personal care aides (+9,523 jobs); laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (+9,285 jobs); cooks, restaurants (+8,816 jobs); fast food and counter workers (+5,047 jobs); and registered nurses (+3,940 jobs). Fast food and counter worker occupations are projected to have the greatest number of annual openings among all subsectors (20,075), followed by laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (14,811 openings). However, the latter is projected to experience the greatest number of exits annually from the workforce (9,816).
Over the ten-year period, DWD is also tracking the total number of annual transfers, or the number of estimated workers who leave an occupation to enter a different occupation. Occupations that are projected to have the greatest number of annual transfers from 2021-2031 include fast food and counter workers (9,754 transfers); laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (9,082 transfers); retail salespersons (6,685 transfers); miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators (5,860 transfers); and cashiers (5,697 transfers). With the exception of miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators, each of these occupations require no formal educational credential or work experience. As these workers continue to gain on-the-job experience and upskilling opportunities, they become more qualified for more technical occupations that are associated with higher salaries.
Emerging Demand based on Federal Investments
Indiana is expecting unprecedented levels of federal investment in infrastructure, transportation, clean energy, and semiconductor manufacturing from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) (including the Broadband Equity Access & Deployment (BEAD) Program), and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
While the exact funding levels and the resulting economic and workforce impact of these investments is still being evaluated, we know that we currently have a high baseline of demand for the workers that will be most critical to deploying these funds across the State even before factoring in the impact of these investments.
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL)
There are currently over 450,000 workers in the industries that are most closely associated with infrastructure projects. The five most critical occupations for deploying infrastructure investments account for 56% of the employment in these industries. The infrastructure sector will need to compete with all other industries across the economy for these workers.
These occupations account for a significant number of jobs and are projected to grow over the next decade, with the average number of job openings ranging from around 1,000 per year up to over 7,000. Retirement risk is relatively low among these occupations, but automation risk is higher than average. These occupations have minimal education and training requirements, but it is likely that employers would value soft skills and digital literacy training.
Indiana is also poised to receive part of a $1 billion investment, via the BIL, into hydrogen production through the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen. The Midwest Hub includes Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan and these states could see additional investments from the private sector as well as 13,600 direct jobs. Indiana will produce hydrogen as a fuel source near BP’s refinery in Whiting, Indiana. Technical occupations that will be critical to this project include machinists, industrial machinery mechanics, industrial engineers, maintenance and repair workers, general, and industrial production managers.
CHIPS and Science Act
In the fall of 2023, and on behalf of the State, the Applied Research Institute (ARI) was awarded two technology and innovation hub designations through the CHIPS and Science Act. The first, Silicon Crossroads, is a three-state initiative focused on growing microelectronics production in the Midwest. It was one of eight Microelectronics Commons regional innovation hubs funded by the Department of Defense to help increase the production of semiconductor technologies and microelectronics. The second, Heartland BioWorks, is a biologics manufacturing hub that was one of 31 entities designated through the Economic Development Administration’s Tech Hubs program.
While semiconductor manufacturing is still in its nascent stage in Indiana, the State’s strong manufacturing identity and skilled workforce ensure it will be in a strong position to compete for semiconductor investment. Additionally, as Silicon Crossroads is physically located near Naval Surface Warfare Center Crane, which established the Microelectronic Commons program for the Department of Defense, it provides a strong link to supporting our national defense and potential for transitioning military veterans to the civilian workforce. In the first round of funding in 2023, Silicon Crossroads was awarded nearly $33 million to grow the Midwest’s semiconductor innovation ecosystem, with four future funding rounds currently anticipated.
There are currently nearly 389,000 workers in industries related to semiconductor manufacturing within Indiana. The top five occupations within these industries account for 33% of the current jobs. Many of these occupations are in high demand from other industry sectors as well.
While semiconductor processing technicians are currently a relatively small occupation in the State, this occupation is projected to grow by 67% in the next decade. Furthermore, recent economic development announcements suggest this occupation will grow even more significantly in the coming years based on projects currently in development. Several of the other top occupations are expected to grow in the next 10 years, with significant average annual openings ranging from 900 to over 10,000. Retirement risk is high among these occupations which is expected to impact demand for replacement workers. Most of these occupations require minimal education and job training; however, due to their risk of automation and the future orientation of this cluster, digital and technical skills will be crucial to keeping up with employer’s workforce needs. Industrial engineers are among the only top occupations to require a bachelor’s degree, and it is the only one with a below average risk of automation.
In contrast to semiconductor manufacturing, Indiana has a rich history and mature economy built around the life sciences and biopharmaceuticals, and employment figures for this sector will be discussed later in this section. Heartland BioWorks currently has a pending application for implementation grant funding, which includes a proposal for a new biotech workforce training center in a historically disadvantaged neighborhood in Indianapolis. In partnership with Ivy Tech Community College, the training center would focus on training for in-demand advanced manufacturing and lab technician jobs within this sector.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
There are currently an estimated 684,959 workers employed in clean energy industries across the State. Among the forty-four occupations that are most critical to clean energy, the top five account for 28% of employment.
The top 5 occupations are all experiencing growth, ranging from 4% to 13% over the next decade and are projected to have a significant number of job openings each year due to economic growth and job replacements due to churn and retirement. The clean energy sector will face competition from other sectors for these workers. Each of these occupations have a higher-than-average risk of automation, which means that a relatively high percent of workers’ time and tasks will be spent using, managing, and maintaining computerized and/or automated processes and systems. This will likely result in an increased demand for technical and digital skills among these workers. Most of these occupations require a high school diploma or equivalent and short-term training or a registered apprenticeship. However, it is worth noting that although these occupations are at-risk of automation, they will not be going away anytime soon.
iii. Employers’ Employment Needs
Table 13 details the educational attainment requirement, work experience requirement, and job training requirements for each of the top 20 projected occupations in Indiana. Most of the top occupations do not require any work experience, except for farmers, ranchers, and other agriculture managers; and general and operations managers which both require 5 years of experience or more. The occupational group, cooks, restaurant, requires less than 5 years of experience.
Additionally, nearly all occupations require some level of job training experience, whether that is short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training experience. Only registered nurses; farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers; and general and operations managers do not require job training experience. It is worth noting, however, that registered nurses and general and operations managers require additional training post-employment to attain competency in the skills needed in these occupations, which is why there are no job training requirements listed.
Figure 2 details the educational attainment requirements for all occupations at the 6-digit SOC level in Indiana. Nearly 40% of all occupations in Indiana require a high school diploma or equivalent and 28% require a 2-year or 4-year degree. Only 6% of occupations require a post-secondary non-degree award compared to 1% that require some college, no degree. However, since the data do not include industry-recognized credentials, registered apprenticeships, or other short-term training that is not provided by a registered academic institution, the share of jobs that require technical training is likely undercounted. The percentage of occupations in the State that do not require any formal educational credential (even a high school diploma) is 13%.
Figure 2: Education Attainment Requirement for All Occupations at the 6-digit SOC level (source: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages)
Indiana collected job posting analytics data provided by Lightcast’s dataset of job posting profiles by employers.[1] Tables 14, 15, and 16 detail the top advertised specialized skills, commons skills, and qualifications for the top five industry sectors in Indiana at the 2-digit NAICS level in 2031. The skills and qualifications listed are associated with a percentage. This reflects the percent of job postings, collected, gleaned, and documented by Lightcast, that have those skills and qualifications listed for each respective industry sector (Tables 14, 15, and 16) and occupations (Tables 17, 18, and 19) from January 2021 to January 2023.
[1] Data Methodology: https://kb.lightcast.io/en/articles/6957446-job-posting-analytics-jpa-methodology
Drilling deeper, Tables 17, 18, and 19 detail the top advertised specialized skills, common skills, and qualifications for the top five occupations in Indiana at the 6-digit SOC level in 2031.