Enter Narrative |
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<p>The number of customers served by IDVR is diminishing. Historic rates of low unemployment across Idaho and new mandates created by WIOA are likely factors in this recent downturn. However, it is obvious that unemployment will not remain at this level. April 2020 preliminary data suggest Idaho’s unemployment rate has risen from 2.5 percent to 11.5 percent. Consequently, the Division believes the downward trend in applications and plans will end and we can expect an unknown increase in applications for VR services. IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts forecasts using increases of one, three and five percent service volume increases to project various cost scenarios and their potential impact on grant funds. For the purposes of this section (K.2-K.4), the Division will utilize the three percent volume of services increase for FY 2020 and the five percent volume of services increase for FY 2021.</p> |
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<p>The number of customers served by IDVR under WIOA has diminished. Historic rates of low unemployment across Idaho, new mandates created by WIOA, and COVID-19 are likely factors in this downturn. The Division has launched an outreach strategy to re-engage former customers, and Idaho’s unemployment rate has returned to near pre-pandemic levels with a November 2021 preliminary rate of 2.6 percent (BLS.gov). While it can be difficult to accurately predict customer application rate in the unique conditions presented by the current labor market, the Division believes the downward trend in applications and plans will end and we can expect an unknown increase in applications for VR services. IDVR’s fiscal unit conducts forecasts using increases of one, three and five percent service volume increases to project various cost scenarios and their potential impact on grant funds. For the purposes of this section (K.2-K.4), the Division will utilize the three percent volume of services increase for FY 2022 and the five percent volume of services increase for FY 2023. Due to uncertainty surrounding inflationary pressure, the Division has used FY 2021 one-year actual costs rather than the alternate five-year average cost model to better approximate higher anticipated costs.</p>
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<p>IDVR has 3895 participants in plan and receiving services in the most recently fiscal projection model. This includes 1724 participants under Most Significant Disability (MSD), 1374 participants under Significant Disability (SD), and 797 participants classified under the Disability (D) severity categories.</p>&#13; |
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<p>IDVR has 5073 participants in plan and receiving services in the most recently completed fiscal projection model. This includes 2010 participants under Most Significant Disability (MSD), 1675 participants under Significant Disability (SD), and 1388 participants classified under the Disability (D) severity categories.</p>
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&#13; |
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<p>Estimates of Customers in Plan Status (Receiving Services) for IDVR</p>&#13; |
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<p><strong>Estimates of Customers in Plan Status (Receiving Services) for IDVR</strong></p>
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<table><thead><tr><th> |
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<table>
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<thead>
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</th><th> |
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<tr>
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MSD&#13; |
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<td>
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</th><th> |
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<p><a> </a></p>
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SD&#13; |
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</td>
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</th><th> |
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<td>
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D&#13; |
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<p> MSD</p>
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</th><th> |
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</td>
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Total in Plan&#13; |
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<td>
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</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> |
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<p> SD</p>
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<p>Current (100%)</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p> D</p>
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<p>1724</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p> Total in Plan</p>
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<p>1374</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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</tr>
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<td> |
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</thead>
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<p>797</p> |
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<tbody>
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</td> |
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<tr>
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<td> |
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<td>
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<p>3895</p> |
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<p> FFY 2021 Actual (100%)</p>
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</td> |
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</td>
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</tr><tr><td> |
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<td>
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<p>FFY 2020 (103%)</p> |
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<p>2010</p>
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</td> |
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</td>
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<td> |
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<td>
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<p>1776</p> |
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<p>1675</p>
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</td> |
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</td>
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<td> |
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<td>
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<p>1415</p> |
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<p>1388</p>
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</td> |
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</td>
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<td> |
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<td>
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<p>821</p> |
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<p>5073</p>
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</td> |
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</td>
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<td> |
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</tr>
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<p>4012</p> |
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<tr>
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</td> |
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<td>
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</tr><tr><td> |
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<p> FFY 2022 Estimate (103%)</p>
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<p>FFY 2021 (105%)</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p>2070</p>
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<p>1810</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p>1725</p>
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<p>1443</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p>1430</p>
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<p>837</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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<td>
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<td> |
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<p>5225</p>
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<p>4090</p> |
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</td>
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</td> |
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</tr>
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</tr></tbody></table><p> </p> |
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<tr>
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<td>
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<p> FFY 2023 Estimate (105%)</p>
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</td>
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<td>
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<p>2111</p>
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</td>
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<td>
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<p>1759</p>
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</td>
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<td>
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<p>1457</p>
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</td>
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<td>
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<p>5327</p>
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</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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<p> </p>
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