WIOA State Plan Common Elements

The state plans on addressing several technical assistance items identified by the federal review team after the plan’s submission.

(i) EXISTING DEMAND INDUSTRY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONS

This section analyzes Idaho’s high-demand industries and provides an overview of Idaho’s Target Sectors. It also covers Idaho’s high-demand occupations, including an analysis of Idaho’s “Hot Jobs” list, which are those jobs that generally require some training, pay a better wage and are predicted to be in high demand.

High-Demand Industries

High demand industries can be defined in several ways. Most commonly they are industries with the largest number of workers. However, for the purpose of analyzing Idaho’s industrial make-up to determine what industries might be the best to target, that industry’s employment as a percentage of nonfarm employment and its rate of job growth over a period of time will also be part of the equation, employment in the government sectors, excepting education, will not be included in the discussion of job growth and target industries. Government employment is important, but its jobs are not actively created and most often support efforts in private industry. There are industries that cross multiple sectors and are not considered formal industries in the North American Industrial Classification System, commonly known as NAICS. Two of these often referred to are tourism and high tech. These hybrid industries do have an impact on Idaho’s economy but are a combination of several industrial sectors. Just as these two industries are made up of smaller industrial classifications, specific occupations can be found in many industries. That is why it is important that the analysis of demand industries is not limited just to those with the highest number of workers.

Idaho Department of Labor 2020 data shows Idaho had a monthly average of 755,100 nonfarm payroll jobs. Total nonfarm employment is further classified in seven industry supersectors.  Table 1  for detailed Nonfarm Jobs shows the seven highest-demand super-sectors, based on the number of jobs. The top three – education and health services, trade, transportation and utilities, and construction – accounted for more than 50 percent of growth between 2010 and 2020. These other four high-demand supersectors are professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; manufacturing; and financial activities. The number of jobs in these seven supersectors range from 111,500 to 37,500.

Employment growth and trends since 2010 illustrate the recovery from the 2007 recession. Since 2010, each of the supersectors has shown significant growth. The recession caused a dramatic loss of 51,500 jobs between 2007 and 2010. After that, Idaho’s economy created 151,900 new jobs. Education and health services added the most jobs—28,400, while the information supersector decreased by 2,200 jobs. Construction, like manufacturing, experienced devastating job losses during the recession but grew significantly after 2010. However, construction has relatively increased the most between 2010 and 2020, by 79 percent, in part due to the rapid growth in Idaho.

Table 1: Employment in Idaho Private Supersectors Adding the Most Jobs, 2010-2020

Another way to determine demand is by the percent change in the number of jobs over time. Following the recession, jobs in four supersectors grew more than 30 percent, while total nonfarm jobs grew 25.2 percent between 2010 and 2020. They were construction (79 percent); education and health services (34 percent); professional, scientific and technical services (31 percent); leisure and hospitality (31 percent). Jobs in professional and business services more than tripled between 2007 and 2020. Table 2 provides information on both the numeric and percentage growth of those supersectors.

Table 2: Employment in Idaho’s Seven Fastest-Growing Private Supersectors, 2010-2020

Idaho Target Sectors

In recent years, the Idaho Department of Labor staff along with the Workforce Development Council leadership began discussing potential target industries for the state. The group analyzed the number of current jobs and gross domestic product (GDP) in each supersector. Table 3 ranks the supersectors by employment and gross domestic product. While education and health care, retail trade and professional and business services ranked highest in employment; the share of GDP for finance/insurance/real estate tops all supersectors leaving manufacturing and professional and business services the next top contributors.  In the industry makeup of the state retail trade is a large supersector and while many of its jobs are entry-level and low skill this super-sector is prime as a springboard for workforce development and skill enhancement.

Jobs in education are primarily found in the government sector and as such are typically low in both employment and contributions to GDP but are vital for the state since they provide educational opportunities and skill development for current and future work force.

Table 3: Ranking of Private Supersectors by Employment and GDP: 2020

^{*2020 Nonfarm Annual Average}

Employment projections, wages paid, and the multiplier impact of supersectors on Idaho’s economy are also important areas to look at. Staffing patterns of the potential supersectors were analyzed by high demand, hot jobs, and wages. On a quarterly basis, the department’s Research and Analysis Bureau presents the Workforce Development Council with economic updates regarding Idaho’s target super-sectors. These updates and data are discussed at the Council level to monitor the continued relevance of these clusters in real time and measure their impact on Idaho’s economy and workforce.

Table 4 shows the top five supersectors projected to grow significantly during the next 10 years. Growth also will occur in other supersectors including public administration, educational services, wholesale trade as well as transportation and warehousing.

Table 4: Private Supersector Ranked by Projected Employment Growth, 2020-2030

Together, these five supersectors provide more than 50 percent of Idaho jobs. The largest is health care and social assistance, which currently provide 13 percent of all jobs and projected to increase to 14 percent over ten years. The smallest is manufacturing at just over 8 percent. Table 4 shows that each of the target supersectors will continue to grow and provide job opportunities for Idaho’s work force.

• Health Care and Social Services comprises ambulatory medical care, hospitals, nursing, residential care, childcare, vocational rehabilitation services and mental health services. Many of the services provided by this sector are delivered by trained professionals. All establishments have labor inputs of health practitioners or social workers with the necessary expertise. This supersector, which includes public and private employment, provides 13.5 percent of Idaho’s jobs. Although this sector includes only four major industry categories, it includes more than 150 occupations.
• Construction comprises nine industries, ranging from residential and highway construction to special trade contractors such as electricians and plumbers. As a result of the recession, construction employment as a percent fell to a low of 4.8 percent in 2011-2012 but has since increased in the percent of jobs each year, reaching 6.7 percent by 2020.
• Leisure and Hospitality comprises five industries – including accommodation, amusement, performing arts, sports and food services. This industry comprises nearly 10 percent of Idaho’s non-farm jobs.
• Professional, Scientific and Technical Services comprises nine industries including: legal services; accounting and tax preparation; architectural and engineering; computer systems design; consulting; scientific research; and advertising. There are nearly 200 occupations in this supersector, which provides slightly more than 12 percent of Idaho’s nonfarm jobs and some of the highest paid occupations.
• Manufacturing includes a wide range of activities—from food processing and wood processing to making computer and electronic products and transportation equipment. Food processing and transportation equipment are the fastest growing manufacturing sectors. Many of Idaho’s high-tech jobs are in the manufacturing supersector. The amount of nonfarm jobs in manufacturing contributed to 8.4 percent of Idaho’s jobs.

High-Demand Occupations

Occupations generally cross industries. Some will be more prominent in specific industries but can be found to a lesser degree in others. For example, although most nurses work in health care, some work in manufacturing, retail, education and other supersectors. Similarly, food service workers mostly work at restaurants and related businesses, but some work at school cafeterias, retail stores, hospitals, and nursing homes.

Occupations are considered high-demand if they have at least 100 openings annually. Average annual openings reflect churn in the labor force. Openings include those where individuals left a particular occupation for any reason or transferred out of a particular occupation to another one. Also included are openings that are new due to growth in that particular occupation. Table 5 lists the top ten high-demand occupations, ranked by the number of annual openings –which include transfers, exits and new jobs. Table 6 lists the top ten high-demand occupations, ranked by the number of new jobs.

Table 5: Top 10 High-Demand Occupations Ranked by Annual Openings

^{*Annual Openings include openings due to exits, transfers and projected growth (New Jobs)}   

Table 6: Top 10 High-Demand Occupations Ranked by Number of New Jobs

The occupations ranked in Tables 5 and 6 share several common occupations. However, occupations ranked by the number of new jobs also include passenger vehicle drivers, except transit and intercity bus drivers. These include common transportation occupations including Lyft and Uber, a passenger transportation trend which has grown in recent years.

The Idaho Department of Labor defines Idaho’s hot jobs as those jobs which generally require some training, pay a better wage, and are predicted to be in high demand. Specifically, the criteria used to determine which jobs are included on the hot jobs list include (1) the number of annual openings, (2) median wage, and (3) projected growth. Some hot jobs have fewer than 100 openings a year but make the list due to their high wages and projected growth. For example, the occupation of “environmental engineers” has only 78 annual openings, but the median wage and growth rate are remarkably high. The top 20 hot jobs are listed below.

Table 7: Top 20 Hot Jobs by Ranking

^{*Annual Openings include openings due to exits, transfers and projected growth (New Jobs)                                                                                                                                                              SOURCE: Idaho Department of Labor Occupational Projections, 2020-2030}

The list below shows major occupational groups and how many of Idaho’s 50 hot jobs are included and the projected annual openings from those occupations.

• Architecture and Engineering – Seven occupations requiring an associate’s or bachelor’s degree, 1029 openings
• Business and Finance - One occupation requiring a bachelor’s degree, 272 openings
• Community and Social Service - One occupation requiring a bachelor’s degree, 328 openings
• Computer and Mathematical - One occupation requiring a bachelor’s degree, 559 openings
• Construction and Extractions - Eleven occupations requiring either a high school diploma or equivalent or no formal educational credential, 9,746 openings
• Education, Training and Library - Two occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or a master’s degree, 245 openings
• Healthcare Practitioners and Technical - Ten occupations requiring education ranging from an associate degree to a doctoral or professional degree — 2,442 openings
• Healthcare Support - One occupation requiring an associate-s degree, 105 openings
• Installation, Maintenance and Repair - Three occupations requiring either a high school diploma or equivalent or postsecondary non-degree award, 933 openings
• Management - Seven occupations with one requiring a high school diploma or equivalent and all others requiring a bachelor’s degree, 4,892 openings
• Personal Care and Service - One occupation requiring high school diploma or equivalent, 708 openings
• Production – Two occupations requiring a high school diploma or equivalent, 1,445 openings
• Sales and Related - Two occupations—one requiring a high school diploma or equivalent and one requiring a bachelor's degree, 1,335 openings

Of the 50 hot jobs, 33 require some type of training beyond high school, including seven of the top 10. Projected growth of these occupations, coupled with education data and direct input from representatives of Idaho industries, lend strong support to the state’s goal to increase educational attainment beyond high school. It is vital that Idaho’s labor force seek educational opportunities to qualify for the hot jobs projected over the next 10 years.

The Research and Analysis Bureau in the Idaho Department of Labor publishes a monthly job listing report. The report provides current data on the number of job openings in Idaho for each month and the average number of new openings. The jobs are ranked by the monthly average listings. “New listings” are those listed for the first time that month. The number of listings open 90 days or more are considered hard-to-fill. The wages are presented as the median annual wage rather than the median hourly rate because that is what is published monthly. Many of the top 20 job listings are also on the high demand occupations based on occupational employment projections. Most of those occupations show up at the top of the job listings every month due to high demand. The top 20 job listings for 2020 are listed below.

Table 8: Average Monthly Job Listings, 2020

 ^{NOTE: Median Annual Wage is from the 2020 Occupational Employment & Wage Survey released in May 2020                                                                                                     SOURCE: Idaho Department of Labor - Communications & Research Division & The Conference Board's Help Wanted OnLine}

(ii) Emerging Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations & (iii) Employers' Employment Needs

This section analyzes emerging demand industry sectors and occupations by way of examining high growth industries and occupations. In several cases, industries and occupations that have previously been discussed as high demand are also high growth. For example: construction is a high growth industrial sector and many construction occupations are in current high demand.

However, there are some occupations that are not currently high demand but are growing— such as electronics engineers or nuclear technicians. Additionally, subsectors within a high-growth industry may be emerging. For example, more than one-half of the growth in the health care field is projected to occur in ambulatory health care services, which include doctor’s offices, outpatient care centers, home health care and laboratories.  These and other trends are discussed in greater depth under “Growth Industries” and “Growth Occupations.”

Growth Industries

This section examines Idaho’s industries in terms of projected employment growth. The industrial supersectors projected to have the largest net job growth between 2020 and 2030 are:

• Health Care and Social Assistance – 23,156
• Construction – 21,132
• Manufacturing – 12,647
• Accommodation and Food Services – 11,364
• Educational Services (include private and government jobs) – 9,947
• Wholesale Trade – 5,250

Most of these industries are already among Idaho’s largest. However, the new emerging and revitalized industries could be identified as: arts, entertainment and recreation, and transportation and warehousing. Each of these emerging industries are projected to add more than 3,000 jobs to its work force by 2030. An analysis of the growth in each industry sector follows.

Construction: Construction employment is projected to have the largest percentage growth at 39 percent, resulting in the addition of 21,132 new jobs. More than half of the new jobs will be in specialty trades including painting, electrician, and plumbing businesses. Heavy and civil engineering construction will have the smallest uptick at 1,050 jobs. With the high demand for new homes and rapid growth in the state, jobs in both nonresidential and residential building construction are predicted to increase by over 8,450. Construction employment in 2030 is projected to be 75,468.  Sixteen construction occupations are in the top 100 high demand. First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers is the top 2^nd in-demand occupation. Carpenters and electricians are in the top 50. Another five construction occupations are in the top 20. In 2021, the Research and Labor Bureau conducted a survey for a major nuclear construction project in eastern Idaho, working in conjunction with the Idaho Workforce Development Council to coordinate efforts for training the thousands of construction workers projected to be needed for this project over the next 10 years.

 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation: Employment in the Arts, Entertainment & Recreation industry ranked as having the second highest projected percent growth by 2030 at 32 percent. Employment in this industry is projected to add 3,834 new jobs over the next nine years from sub-sectors including amusement, gambling, recreation, performing arts, spectator sports, and museums/historical sites. More than two-thirds of the growth is projected to occur within occupations including amusement parks, fitness trainers, bartending, and waiters/waitresses. Performing arts and spectator sports are projected to add another 778 new jobs by 2030.

Health Care and Social Assistance: Over the long-term, the health care and social assistance sector is projected to add the most jobs at 23,156. However, it ranks third in percentage growth at 21 percent. The aging workforce and in-migration of retirees will continue to drive significant growth in this sector. Ambulatory health care services, which include doctor’s offices, outpatient care centers, home health care and laboratories is projected to grow by nearly 27 percent, adding more than 12,000 jobs over the next 10 years. Hospitals – including general, surgical, psychiatric and substance abuse facilities – are projected to grow by 20 percent.  Nursing homes and residential care facilities will add 1,400 jobs by 2030. Social assistance is projected to add nearly 2,600 jobs, growing 16 percent, as more individuals and families are seeking counseling services for the elderly and disabled, assistance with retraining, emergency food and shelter, and day care services. The growth and aging of Idaho’s population will foster this industry’s growth. Idaho’s health care will grow about 21 percent between 2020 and 2030. This rapid growth in population has led to shortages in many health care occupations. Over 20 percent of the high demand jobs are in the health care industry with the education ranging from an associate degree to a professional degree.

Transportation and Warehousing: Transportation and warehousing— a component of the trade, transportation and utilities sector—makes up about 17 percent of the sector’s employment. Transportation and warehousing ranks fourth in percentage growth at 19 percent but ninth in numeric growth, projected to add just under 4,800 jobs. Most of the growth will come from the transit and ground passenger transport. Passenger vehicle drivers is ranked as the 80^th top in-demand job.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing struggled the first few years following the 2007 recession but rebounded after 2011. By 2030 employment is projected to reach over 80,000, an increase of over 12,000 jobs, ranking it fifth in percentage growth. Food processing will account for 18 percent of the growth, while the computer industry’s employment is projected to increase by 21 percent.

Accommodation and Food Services: Accommodation and food services industries, the largest part of the leisure and hospitality sector, is projected to add more than 11,000 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Jobs in the food services industry will account for 80 percent of this growth. Job openings will include servers, food preparation and serving workers, counter attendants, dishwashers and cooks. Only restaurant cooks require more than short-term training. Most of these jobs require interaction with the public, so good people skills are of relevant importance. Growth in Idaho’s population and increased tourism activity will contribute to the employment increase.

Wholesale Trade: Jobs in wholesale trade will expand by more than 5,000 over the next 10 years, a projected increase of 17 percent by 2030. New jobs in merchant wholesalers – which include motor vehicle parts and suppliers, professional equipment, and machinery – are projected to bring 5,800 new jobs by 2030. Wholesale electronic markets and merchant wholesalers of non-durable goods are both projected to experience a decline in projected jobs.

Education Services: By 2030, education services are forecast to add nearly 10,000 jobs, a 17 percent increase in both public and private schools from kindergarten through postsecondary. Education accounts for more than half of government jobs. As Idaho’s population continues to grow, student populations will also rise. Although Idaho’s economy is growing, schools continue to experience budget constraints. Some school districts have passed bond and levy elections to help ease local budgets and upgrade facilities and equipment, however, local school districts in many rural areas of Idaho continue to struggle with their budgets. For example, inadequate public-school facilities and equipment, along with overcrowding can be expensive to address, all of which may be a disincentive to new residents wanting to relocate to the area. The current budget pressures on public education will have a direct effect on the structure of Idaho’s economy.

Growth Occupations

This section examines Idaho’s occupations both in terms of net growth and relative growth. An occupation with large relative growth may not necessarily add a large number of jobs. Sixty-five of Idaho’s top 100 in-demand occupations are projected to experience very high relative growth between 2020 and 2030, defined as an increase of 20 percent or more in total number of jobs. However, the majority of these high-growth occupations have less than 500 annual openings. Openings do not just come from the addition of new jobs but also from the need to replace workers that are exiting the occupation or leaving the labor force. Of the sixty-five fastest growing in-demand occupations with a projected growth of 20 percent or more, only five have at least 1,000 annual openings. Of the 20 fastest growing in-demand occupations, four have more than 100 new job openings and ten require more than a high school education. The four occupations with more than 100 new job openings include: carpenters, first-line supervisors of construction trades, electricians and HVAC and refrigeration mechanic and installers.