Located in:
- II. Strategic Elements
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system. The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs to support economic growth. Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions, economic development strategies, and labor market in which the State’s workforce system and programs will operate.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
II. a. 1. B. Workforce Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the current workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment, as defined in section 3 of WIOA4. This population must include individuals with disabilities among other groups5 in the State and across regions identified by the State. This includes—
[4] Individuals with barriers to employment include displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals.
[5] Veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.
i. Employment and Unemployment
Provide an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.
ii. Labor Market Trends
Provide an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations.
iii. Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce
Provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.
iv. Skill Gaps
Describe apparent ‘skill gaps’.
Current Narrative:
Unemployment Rates and Barriers to Employment
Also related to educational attainment are labor force participation and unemployment. Consistent with economic research and as evidenced by the outcomes in Vermont, the higher the educational attainment level of a population, the higher the labor force participation rate. Versus the U.S., Vermont’s labor force participation rate is approximately 3 percentage points higher. Even with a high rate of participation, the outcomes are also better for Vermonters when considering unemployment rates. Unemployment is inversely related to education and Vermont is consistently in the top ten for lowest unemployment rate in the country. For much of 2019, Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate of any other state. This is not to say the employment outcomes of all Vermonters are positive. Many populations within the state experience significant barriers to employment.
Women – the economic progress of women in the U.S. economy has been robust over the past 50 years. Between 1950 and 2000, the labor force participation rate of women in the U.S. has nearly doubled. However, since this time, the rates have leveled and, in some states, declined. Some of this decline could be attributed to the increased participation of women in education. By most education metrics in Vermont, the educational attainment level of young women exceeds young men. Beyond labor force participation and schooling, the economic outcomes for women and men continue to be different.
Occupational segregation presents an ongoing challenge as traditional definitions of employment by sex persist. This can isolate women from the fast-growing and high-paying world of the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) fields. Another challenge is the division of labor when it comes to unpaid work in the household. Though women are more likely to be working or in school than decades ago, the time spent on household related activities continues to disproportionately fall to women. Home responsibilities can limit a women’s ability to single-mindedly pursue economic advancement (promotions, trainings, working overtime, etc.). This potentially manifests in lower direct compensation in the short run but that is not all. The downstream impacts of breaks in employment can limit future professional advancement, impact qualifying earnings calculations for Social Security and lessen monetary contributions to personal retirement accounts.
Minorities – In Vermont, conversations on gender equity and racial equity are closely associated. Vermont is often considered a “white state” with over 94% of the population identified as “white alone” per the U.S. Census Bureau. Though a small part of population, non-white races and ethnicities are an increasing share of the state’s people. This important and growing number of non-white Vermonters can face many barriers to employment as evidenced by the higher unemployment rates. Specifically, hispanic and black Vermonters that are in the labor force are two times more likely to be unemployed than their white counterparts. Unpacking additional economic outcomes by race is difficult due to a lack of reliable data. It is the hope of the State of Vermont that the 2020 U.S. Census will provide better clarity on the total numbers. Many non-white Vermonters have come here in the last ten years via refugee status and are therefore New Americans.
Veterans – As a state, Vermont has consistently answered the call to serve the country. Vermont’s ratio of Veterans to population (6.2%) exceeds the U.S. average (5.7%). As such, Vermont has a high concentration of veterans and supporting them is a priority. Overall, Gulf War Veterans (eras I and II) employment outcomes are positive with higher labor force participation and lower rates of unemployment. That said, Veterans from all eras can experience high rates of disability due to physical or mental health issues.
Mature Workers – With a high concentration of people over 55 years old, the mature worker is a key contributor to the Vermont economy. Bringing a wealth of personal and professional experiences, the mature worker is a valuable contributor to businesses in all industries. The leading edge of the Baby Boomer generation turned 65 in 2011. The tail of this generation won’t turn 65 until 2029. Some mature workers can retire but choose to work. Others must keep working out of economic necessity. Either way, working with employers and training providers to promote the employment opportunities to this population is critical.
Vermont’s Workforce
One common theme in Vermont and across the U.S. is the varying economic outcomes between urban and rural areas. The period of economic expansion which began in 2009 has largely been concentrated in urban areas with the U.S.’s metropolitan areas reaping most of the economic gains. This story is no different in Vermont where rural counties have higher rates of unemployment and lower rates of labor force participation. Living in a rural setting represents physical distance to employment centers which increases the need for reliable transportation. This can also complicate access to childcare. Rural communities may also be underserved with regards to internet access. Online job applications have become commonplace in today’s job market. The ability to work from home or start your own business can also require a reliable internet connection.
Though magnified in a rural setting all the aforementioned barriers to employment – transportation, childcare, lack of internet – are real to many people in urban settings as well. And the barriers don’t stop there. Substance abuse, criminal records, physical or mental health issues, secondary impacts of poverty – all of these situations can impact a person’s ability to advance economically. In many cases, these situations disproportionately impact certain populations most notably women, minorities, veterans, and mature workers.
As a core determinant of traditional economic growth, population can be used as a key barometer of future economic outcomes. As previously alluded to, Vermont has a small population base with last estimate at approximately 624,000 in 2019. The population in the state has been hovering in the 620,000 range since 2005. Over this 14-year time period, the annual growth rate of the state’s population falls between -0.1% and 0.1% depending on the year. For all intents and purposes, the population in Vermont is flat and there is little evidence that this will change soon.
As a state, Vermont’s population is the third oldest in the U.S. as determined by median age. The two largest contributing factors to this are: Americans are living longer due to advances in health care and Vermont has had a low birth rate for several decades. Underlying both trends is the high level of educational attainment realized by Vermonters. Education is positively linked to life expectancy and negatively related to birth rates. Relative to the U.S., Vermonters have a higher rate of high school completion and are more likely to have a bachelor’s or advanced degree.
Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce.
Vermont school enrollment has been declining since 1997. In the 2015 - 2016 school year (SY), Vermont’s high schools had a combined enrollment of 23,145, a decline of 114 students from 2014-15. SY 2015-2016 compared to SY 2017-2018 shows an additional drop in enrollment of 4.3% or 1,005 students. The statewide dropout rate for high school students decreased in a recent five-year period: SY 2013-2014 showed a rate of 9.6% as compared to 8.1% in SY 2017-2018.
Data collected as part of the AOE’s education quality review indicates:
- Students are meeting most academic performance standards.
- Performance is lower in 2017-18 than it was in 2016-17.
- Achievement gaps persist between our Historically Marginalized Students and their historically privileged peers.
ELA and Math:
- There are large gaps in Performance for all Historically Marginalized Student groups.
- Gaps in Growth for Historically Marginalized Student groups are generally smaller.
- English Language Acquisition (ELA) performance is consistent across grade levels.
- Math performance declines steadily from grades 3-9.
- This trend holds for all student groups, though it is the least pervasive for females.
Graduation Rates:
- Gaps in graduation rates are small for most Historically Marginalized Student groups when compared to gaps in ELA and Math performance.
- English learners have the lowest 4-year graduation rate of any student group.
- The gap in 6-year graduation rates is substantially lower for English learners.
Additional Links for inclusion: