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  • II. Strategic Elements

    The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system.  The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs to support economic growth.  Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs. 

II. a. 1. B. Workforce Analysis

The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the current workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment, as defined in section 3 of WIOA4.  This population must include individuals with disabilities among other groupsin the State and across regions identified by the State.  This includes—

[4] Individuals with barriers to employment include displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals.

[5] Veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.

  • i. Employment and Unemployment

    Provide an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.

  • ii. Labor Market Trends

    Provide an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations.

  • iii. Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce

    Provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.

  • iv. Skill Gaps

    Describe apparent ‘skill gaps’.

Current Narrative:

Part B: Workforce Analysis
(B) Workforce Analysis.  The Unified State Plan must include an analysis of the current workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment, as defined in Section 3 of the WIOA[1].  This population must include individuals with disabilities among other groups[2] in the State and across regions identified by the State.  This includes:  

1.  Employment and Unemployment.  Provide an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.  

2.  Labor Market Trends.  Provide an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations.  

3.  Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce.  Provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.  

4.  Skill Gaps.  Describe apparent “skill gaps.”

 Population, Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force Trends
The Unified State Plan calls for an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.  Levels of employment and unemployment are highly dependent on the trends in the population and its characteristics.

 PopulationTrends

In 2018, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the population of Michigan at 9,996,000.  This represents a growth rate of 1.2 percent (+118,380) since 2010, putting the current state population a little over the 2000 levels by 0.4 percent or 43,465 residents.  In contrast, the U.S. population has shown impressive growth, up 17,841,300 (+5.8 percent) since 2010 and 45,005,000 (+16.0 percent) since 2000.

 Michigan’s population displayed positive but declining annual growth rates between 2000 and 2004 before turning negative between 2005 and 2010.  Michigan’s loss of population worsened during the Great Recession, with close to 100,000 residents leaving the state.  Since 2011, Michigan’s population has shown gradual positive gains. (Figure 8)

 Annual Michigan Population Growth, 2000-2018

An analysis of the population trends (past, current, and future) by the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives[3] shows that Michigan’s population is particularly susceptible to economic downturns as far back as the 1970s.  During recessions, Michigan tends to lose population to other states.  According to the study referenced previously, migration into Michigan is expected to expand for the next decade as workers move to the State to fill job openings left by retiring baby boomers.  Michigan’s population is expected to increase to around 10,646,000 by about 2040 and then decline through 2045 as the baby boomer generation shrinks. (Figure 9)

 Michigan Population Trends, 1970-2045 

Both natural population increase (births minus deaths) and international migration have contributed positively to the statewide population.  However, the rate of natural increase in the state’s population has been declining over the past 20 years and beyond, as the fertility rate continues to fall, and the population continues to age.  Gains in international migration also lessened from 2000 to 2011 but ticked upward through 2018.  In fact, between 2011 and 2015, international migration and natural increase are estimated to have equally contributed to the Michigan population gains.  Since then, international migration contributes more to the population expansion in Michigan than natural increase (Figure 10).

 Michigan Components of Population Annual Change, 2000-2018 

Unlike natural population increase and international migration, domestic migration has been negatively impacting Michigan’s population since 2000 and continues to do so to date (2018).  Between 2007 and 2008, Michigan recorded its largest annual domestic out-migration of 104,000.  Since 2008, the number of people moving to other states has abated, but domestic out-migration still reduced the statewide population by about 16,800 in 2018. (Figure 10)

 Domestic migration affected virtually all population subgroups, but the impact on certain population segments has been more pronounced:

  • Persons with some form of post-secondary education were more mobile than those with only a high school degree or less.  Individuals with post-secondary education and training comprised 82 percent of domestic out-migration.
  • The state’s younger population cohorts also exhibited significant declines.  About half of total domestic out-migration stemmed from individuals between the ages of 18 and 34.
  • Domestic out-migration was more prevalent among those with an annual income of less than $50,000.  Higher income earners (annual income of $50,000 or more) only represented 15.6 percent of domestic out-migration.

 Population projections produced by the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives indicate that around 2030, the number of deaths will outpace the count of births in Michigan.  The growth of the population will only be possible through domestic and international migration.

These migration patterns greatly influence the state’s labor pool.  These demographic shifts have implications on the future productivity of Michigan’s labor force.  The poor economic conditions in the state during most of the first decade of the millennium not only contributed to a declining population, but also a shrinking workforce.

Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force Trends

Michigan’s labor market has made a strong recovery since the Great Recession.  In 2009, Michigan had the highest unemployment rate in the country at 13.7 percent.  Since then, the state’s jobless rate has continued to fall—down to 4.1 percent in 2018.  Employment levels have also bounced back strongly after reaching a low of 4,194,000 in 2010.  Since that time, Michigan has added 505,000 employed persons to its economy.  The state’s labor force has also edged up slightly since 2012, advancing by 229,000 through 2018.  However, this followed seven consecutive years of labor force reductions from 2005–2012, with the State workforce falling by 412,000 or 8.1 percent. (Figure 11) 

Labor Market Status of Michigan Workforce, 2000-2018

Despite the strong labor market performance since the recession, Michigan workforce indicators remain well below the peaks established in 2000.  The Michigan jobless rate in 2000 was 3.6 percent, well below the current rate of 4.1 percent.  Far more striking are the long-term massive losses in labor force and employment levels over this period.  In 2018, Michigan’s labor force was 4,902,000, a large drop of 261,000 since 2000.  The same is true for employment, which is still 277,000 below the 2000 levels (Figure 11).  The share of the Michigan population that was active in the labor market (the labor force participation rate) dropped sharply from 68.7 percent in 2000 to 61.4 percent in 2017.  This decline can partially be explained by an aging population, leading to more people of legal working age exiting the workforce. 

More recently, the Michigan workforce continues to improve.  Seasonally adjusted labor market statistics show the state labor force improving by 47,000 and employment improving by 35,000 over the first eight months of 2019.  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate oscillated between 4.0 and 4.3 percent.  But there are still some areas of concern despite this general labor market recovery.   

  • In 2019, 17.9 percent of the state’s unemployed were without work for over 26 weeks, compared to just 3.2 percent in 2001.  A detailed analysis of the long-term unemployed is provided later in this report as one of the groups of persons with barriers to employment.
  • The U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes six measures of labor underutilization rates for states.  The broadest measure, the U6 underutilization rate, includes the unemployed (people without a job but actively looking for one and available to work), marginally attached workers (people willing to work but who have not looked for a job for the past 12 months), and persons working part-time involuntarily.  This measure for the 12-month period ending June 2019 showed a U6 labor underutilization rate for Michigan of 7.6 percent, which was tied with New York and North Carolina for the 17th highest in the nation.  Michigan’s official U3[4] unemployment rate was 4.1 percent over the same period. 
     

Labor Market Trends
The Unified State Plan also calls for providing an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations. 

Michigan’s Payroll Jobs Trends

Michigan’s economy never fully recovered from the substantial number of Manufacturing layoffs that occurred at the turn of the millennium, largely attributed to outsourcing.  In fact, by 2007, Michigan had lost an additional 407,600 payroll jobs, with a loss of 278,600 in Manufacturing alone.

Total Payroll Employment Index (Base year = 2007) 

The impact of the late 2008 financial crisis which came on the heels of the national housing crash forced even greater job reductions among most of the state’s sectors.  The state shed an additional 397,000 jobs in the two-year period from 2007 to 2009.  As of 2018, Michigan’s total nonfarm employment is more than 257,000 below the 2000 levels.  

Michigan’s payroll employment dropped faster than the nation’s during the Great Recession of 2008-2009.  Michigan lost about 9 percent of its payroll employment (a little over 397,000 jobs), while the nation’s industry employment fell by 5 percent (-6.7 million).

 Since the official end of the recession in the second half of 2009, Michigan’s payroll employment recovery has followed the U.S.  However, unlike the U.S., which had surpassed the 2007 pre-recessionary levels by 2014, industry jobs in Michigan remained two (2) percentage points below the 2007 levels (or -86,400). (Figure 12)  Fortunately, payroll jobs continued to show strong expansion in Michigan and by 2016 had surpassed the 2007 levels by 1.2 percent (+51,600).  Today in 2018, the state’s total nonfarm payroll employment is 150,500 above the 2007 pre-recessionary levels.

 Percent Change in Payroll Jobs by Industry Sectors During and After the Recession 

Manufacturing was the hardest hit sector in Michigan during the recession with a job reduction of 25.0 percent (-152,700).  However, the sector has recorded the fastest job recovery since the end of the recession (+38.4 percent or 174,700). 

Jobs in Professional and Business Services declined by approximately 14 percent (-80,900) during the recession.  Employment has grown by 29.5 percent (+150,300) since the end of recessionary period. 

Two private sectors, Education Services and Health Care and Social Assistance, recorded job gains during the recession (+2.1 percent or 12,600 workers, combined).  After the recession, jobs in private Health Care and Social Assistance continued to expand (+14.0 percent or 74,400), while employment in private Education Services dropped by 5.9 percent (-4,700) between 2009 and 2018.  As the economy expands and job availability increases, the opportunity cost of going to school increases.  In other words, more people prefer working over going back to school. 

Employment in Government (including state and local public education) fell by 1.4 percent during the recession (or -8,900) and continued to drop even further after the recession.  Jobs in this sector have dropped by 6.2 percent (-40,300) over the 2009–2018 period. (Figure 13) 

Current Distribution of Michigan’s Payroll Jobs

Although Michigan (like the U.S.) continues to display a shift toward a service-based economy, the share of Manufacturing in total nonfarm payroll employment in Michigan was almost double the proportion nationwide in 2018 (14.3 versus 8.5 percent).  Manufacturing was the third largest employer in Michigan in 2018, with a job level of 629,800. 

The top two broad industry sectors in terms of overall jobs were classified in the service-providing category.  At the top of the list is Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, which accounts for a little over 18.6 percent of industry employment in Michigan (or 791,400).  A third of the jobs in this sector are in Retail trade.  

Professional and Business Services recorded the third largest rate of job gain since the end of the recession at 29.5 percent.  This sector is diverse when it comes to skill requirements, ranging from moderate-skilled jobs in Employment Help Services, Administrative Support, and Waste Management Services to high-skilled subsectors of Architecture and Engineering, Legal Services, Accounting, and others. (Figure 14) 

Private Health Care and Social Assistance Services experienced steady growth, even during the Great Recession.  This sector has nearly as many jobs as Government and is the fifth largest sector in Michigan (604,500 in 2018).  Employment expansion in this sector has been a result of an increasing demand for health care services by an aging population and continuously improving medical technology.  

Distribution of Michigan's Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs across Sectors, 2018 (Annual Average)

Demographics, Education, and Skill Levels of the Michigan Workforce
In addition to the analysis of the current workforce, employment and unemployment data, and labor market trends, the workforce analysis of the Unified State Plan must also provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.  

The characteristics of the Michigan workforce are constantly evolving.  Economic and workforce conditions have varying impacts on demographic groups within Michigan.  Workforce strategies should align with the economic conditions facing specific subgroups of the Michigan labor market. 

Jobless Rates by Demographic Categories 

Michigan Jobless Rate by Marital Status and Sex, 2017 

Unemployment rates in 2017 were reasonably similar for men and women in Michigan, but marital status made a difference.  The 2017 jobless rates for men and women in the Michigan labor force were somewhat similar at 5.7 and 5.0 percent, respectively.  However, individuals who were married had significantly lower unemployment rates.  Married men with a spouse present had a jobless rate of just 2.7 percent in 2017, and married women with a spouse present had a jobless rate of 3.0 percent, both significantly lower than either gender as a whole.  On the other hand, those who were never married, separated, widowed, or divorced experienced noticeably higher jobless rates. (Figure 15) 

The labor participation rate of married men (69 percent) was over 10 percentage points higher than that of married women (57 percent).  Stay-at-home parenthood is likely to be higher among married couples.  On the other hand, separated and divorced men and women experienced similar rates of labor participation (around 60 percent).  The lowest proportion of labor force participation was among those individuals who were widowed, as they were more likely to be in the retirement age and out of the labor force (80 percent for men and 84 percent for women). (American Community Survey, Table B12006)

Michgian Jobless Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2017

Unemployment remained elevated for African Americans in 2017, despite improvements since the Great Recession.  The rate for African Americans (13.6 percent) in Michigan was more than double the rate for all workers (5.9 percent) and over three times the rate of Whites, non-Hispanic (4.2 percent).  The jobless rate for individuals of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity was around average rate for all workers (6.0 percent in 2017).  Asians and non-Hispanic Whites tied for the lowest unemployment rate in 2017 (4.2 percent). (Figure 16)

Michigan Jobless Rates by Age Category, 2017

Jobless rates were generally inversely related to age in Michigan and the U.S.  Teens and young adults faced the highest unemployment rates in the state in 2017 at 18.4 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.  Competition with more experienced or skilled adults, and more frequent movement in and out of the workforce partially explains these higher rates for younger workers.  Jobless rates tend to decrease with age down to a low of 3.9 percent for those aged 45 to 54 years old.  The unemployment rates for older cohorts continue to decline but so are the proportions at which they participate in the workforce.  For people 55 to 59 years of age, for example, the jobless rate is 3.9 percent, but their labor force participation rate falls by about 9 percentage points to 67.5 percent.  The participation rate drops by another 16 percentage points for the 60-64 years old individuals to 51.0 percent.  Only a fifth of individuals in the 65-74 age bracket still participate in the workforce and around 6 percent of those 75 years of age and over participate. (Figure 17) 

Full versus Part-time Employment  

Full versus Part-time Labor Market Status for teh Population 16 to 64 Years of Age, 2017

Women make up a larger share of the Michigan part-time workforce than men.  In Michigan, women comprised about 58 percent of part-time workers in 2017, but accounted for only around 42 percent of full-time workers.  Of the men who worked that year, 70.1 percent did so full-time, year-round (35 hours plus a week and 50-52 weeks a year); only 55.9 percent of working women were in this category. (Figure 18) 

Educational Attainment of the Michigan Workforce

The educational distribution of individuals ages 18 to 24 in Michigan is similar to that of the U.S.  Understandably, this age group displays a high proportion of individuals still in college or having an associate degree (about 45 percent in both areas).  In both Michigan and the nation, about 11 percent of individuals in this age group have a bachelor’s degree or higher; almost 32 percent have a high school diploma or equivalent, and 12 to 13 percent have less than a high school diploma. (Figure 19) 

Compared to national averages, Michigan had a slightly higher share of the adult population (25 years or older) who had attained a high school degree, had some college but no degree, or had an associate degree in 2017.  The state had a smaller proportion of persons with less than a ninth-grade education level than the nation (2.8 vs 5.1 percent).  Michigan lagged behind the nation in the share of residents with bachelor’s degrees (17.6 vs 19.7 percent) or graduate or professional degrees (11.5 vs 12.3 percent). (Figure 19)

 Educational Attainment of the Population, 2017

The distribution of individuals with less than a high school diploma or equivalent across the state reveals that Wayne County displays the largest number of persons in this category (169,107 or 14.4 percent of the county’s adult population age 25 or older).  This puts Wayne County in fifth place in terms of the proportion of individuals with less than a high school or equivalent in the county’s total adult population, after Lake, Oscoda, Clare, and Ogemaw counties. (Figure 20)

 Distribution of Adult Population with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2017

Education has significant implications on labor market outcomes.  Individuals with higher educational degrees tend to experience less unemployment, higher labor force participation, higher earnings, and lower rates of poverty. 

Michigan’s unemployment rates in 2017, were inversely related to educational levels.  Individuals with a less than a high school graduate level of education had the highest jobless rate at 12.5 percent.  Unemployment rates generally decline with higher educational attainment levels to a low of just 2.3 percent for individuals with a bachelor’s degree or higher.  Individuals with higher education are more likely to participate in the labor market.  In 2017, 86.0 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree or more were active in the labor market, while only just a little over half (52.5 percent) of people with less than a high school diploma did so. (Figure 21)

 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates by Educational Attainment (Population 25-64 Years Old), 2017

All education levels registered reduced unemployment rates from 2015 to 2017 in Michigan, ranging from a reduction of 0.4 percentage points for Michigan residents with a bachelor’s degree or above to a fall of 1.5 percentage points for persons with less than a high school diploma. 

People in all categories of educational attainment recorded labor market improvement between 2015 and 2017.  The greatest advance was seen by persons with a high school diploma or equivalent.  The labor force participation rate for individuals in this group rose by 2.1 percentage points to 69.5 percent; their employment rate rose by 3.4 percentage points to 65.0 percent.  The unemployment rate dropped by 2.1 percentage points. (Figure 21) 

Poverty rates were inversely related to educational attainment in Michigan in 2017.  Poverty rates in 2017, ranged from 28.5 percent for persons with less than a high school education to 4.7 percent for residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher. (Figure 22) 

As the economy continues to expand, more job opportunities open for people of all skills and education.  Between 2015 and 2017, poverty rates for all educational attainment groups decreased, with people in the category of less than high school registering the greatest drop of 1.8 percentage points.  

Higher education levels were clearly related to higher median earnings in Michigan.  In 2017, individuals with less than a high school diploma had median earnings in the past 12 months of just $21,773, which was $16,343 below the statewide median income of $38,116.  Income was highest for those with advanced education.  In 2017, people with a bachelor’s degree in Michigan had median earnings of $51,527, and people with a graduate or professional degree recorded median earnings of $70,518.  Between 2015 and 2017, median earnings rose for all . However, those with a graduate or professional degree and high school graduates or equivalent saw the greatest earnings improvement with $3,938 and $3,230, respectively. (Figure 22) 

Poverty Rates and Median Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment (Population 25-64 Years Old), 2017

Labor Market Status of Individuals with Barriers to Employment

Besides the demographic characteristics of Michigan’s workforce (employment, unemployment, and labor force participation across gender, race/ethnicity, age, and others), there are other population groups that the act identifies as facing particularly challenging employment barriers.

Individuals with a Disability

Disability increases with age and is one of several factors that can lead to poverty and other forms of economic distress.  Disability conditions included in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey are hearing difficulty, vision difficulty, cognitive difficulty, ambulatory difficulty, self-care difficulty, and independent living difficulty.  In 2017, 14.1 percent of Michigan’s population (or 1,390,310 persons) self-identified as having one or more types of disability.

 Demographics of Persons with a Disability in Michigan

Gender, Race/Ethnicity, Age, and Educational Attainment

In 2017, individuals with a disability were equally distributed across genders in both Michigan and the U.S.  About 14 percent of the population in Michigan self-identified as having some type of disability.  Michigan presented a higher proportion of persons with a disability than the nation by a full percentage point. 

About one in five (22 percent) American Indians and Alaska Natives are more likely to live with a disability in Michigan.  The ratio is one in six (17 percent) nationwide.  The proportion of Blacks with a disability in Michigan (almost 18 percent) is about four percentage points above the national average.  In fact, nationwide, Blacks and Whites display similar rates of disability (14 percent). (Figure 23)

 Persons with a Disability by Sex and Race/Ethnicity, 2017 (Percent of Total Noninstiututionalized Population)

Ambulatory difficulty is by far the most common disability reported.  In Michigan, almost eight percent of the noninstitutionalized population (about 721,400 persons in 2017) self-identified as having an ambulatory impairment; a full percentage point above the national average in this category.  The next common disability is independent living difficulty (6.5 percent in Michigan and 5.8 percent nationwide).  Around six percent of Michigan’s noninstitutionalized population (5.1 percent nationwide) reported having some cognitive difficulty.  In both Michigan and the nation, almost four percent of the noninstitutionalized population had a hearing difficulty, nearly three percent a self-care difficulty, and around two percent a vision difficulty. (Figure 24)

Persons with a Disability by Type, 2017 (Percent of Total Noninstitutionalized Population)

The incidence of disability classification increases as people age.  About half of all individuals with a disability in 2017 were 75 years or older; around a quarter of this population was in the age bracket of 65 to 74 years, while nearly 15 percent were 35 to 64 years old. (Figure 25)

 Persons with a Disability by Age, 2017 (Percent of Population with a Disability)

The educational attainment of individuals with a disability differs significantly from that of people with no disability in both Michigan and the nation.  While the share of individuals with some college or an associate degree are similar for both groups (with or no disability), the proportion of individuals with no disability who have a bachelor’s degree or higher is more than double the ratio of persons with a disability in the same educational category.  On the other hand, persons with a disability display much higher percentages in the educational categories of high school or equivalent or less than individuals with no disability.  The lower level of educational attainment for individuals with a disability may have a direct negative impact on their earnings as we present it in the next section.

 Between 2015 and 2017, the average educational attainment of people with a disability in Michigan has remained below that of those without a disability.  The two groups have experienced marginal changes, but educational attainment is essentially unchanged over the two years.  For both groups, the percentages of individuals with a high school diploma or equivalent (or less) slightly declined between 2015 and 2017.  The distribution of individuals who held some college, but no degree and an associate degree rose moderately for persons with a disability while remaining flat for those without a disability.  However, the share of individuals with a bachelor’s degree or more rose slightly for both groups. (Figure 26)

 Educational Attainment of Individuals with a Disability in Michigan, 2017 

Distribution of the Population with a Disability Across the State

We mentioned earlier, as age increases, so does the incidence of disability.  As such, counties with higher proportion of older individuals also display higher shares of individuals with a disability in general, and with a vision impairment in particular.  Most of the counties in Northeast Michigan and the Upper Peninsula fall in this category. (Figures 27 and 28)

Distribution of Individuals with a Disability by County, 2017

 Distribution of Visually Impaired Individuals by County, 2017

Economic Characteristics of Persons with a Disability in Michigan

Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force Participation

Michigan and the nation displayed similar labor market conditions for persons with a disability in 2017.  About a quarter of individuals with a disability participated in the labor force in both areas, with an employment rate of 22 to 24 percent and a jobless rate of around 11 percent. (Figure 29)

 Individuals with Disability Employment, Unemp0loyment, and Labor Force Participation, 2017 (Population 16+ Years Old)

The labor market status of people with a disability has improved in Michigan between 2015 and 2017, as the economy of the state continues to expand.  In 2015, about 1,323,000 individuals age 16 or older identified themselves as having some type of disability.  That number dropped by 18,000 in 2017 to 1,305,000.  The labor force participation rate of individuals with a disability advanced by a full percentage point to 25.1 percent in 2017, while the unemployment rate reduced by over 3 percentage points, from 14.9 percent in 2015 to 11.7 percent.  The ratio of the employed over the total number of people eligible for work (age 16 and older) substantially increased by 2.6 percentage points to 21.6 percent.  It is important to note that the labor status of persons without a disability also displays the same trend over the 2015 to 2017 period.  (Figure 29)

 The labor force participation rate for individuals with a disability rises to 39 percent if one considers the working-age group of 18 to 64 years.  That is equivalent to 280,795 who were either employed or unemployed out of a total of 721,451.

 Of those between the ages of 18 and 64, 117,103 individuals recorded having some visual impairment in 2017.  Out of those, 42 percent had a career; 5 percent were actively looking for a job (therefore classified as unemployed); and 53 percent were out of the labor force. (ACS, 2017 1-year estimates, Table B18120)

 Disability and Earnings

Having a disability often means mobility limitations in the search for better job opportunities.  When this is combined with the fact that educational attainment among persons with a disability is likely to be lower than those with no disability, the impact on wages for this group becomes apparent.  Persons with a disability in both Michigan and the U.S. are over-represented among low income-earner groups (below $15,000 a year).  In 2017, 18.0 percent of people with a disability in Michigan (about 63,413) earned less than $5,000; 21.5 percent (or 75,743 persons with a disability) had an income between $5,000 and $15,000.

 On the other end of the income distribution, 11.8 percent of people with a disability (or 41,570) earned an income between $50,000 and $75,000, and only 9.4 percent (a little over 33,000 persons with a disability) earned $75,000 or more, in Michigan in 2017. (Figure 30)

Annual Earnings of Persons with a Disability in Michigan, 2017

Industry and Occupational Employment

The employment distribution of people with a disability across industries in Michigan is like that of people with no disability.  In 2017, the top five employers of both groups listed Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance (22 percent of persons with a disability versus 23 percent otherwise), Manufacturing (18 versus 19 percent), Retail Trade (13 versus 11 percent), Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services (10 versus 9 percent), and Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services (9 versus 10 percent). (Figure 31)

On the other side of the spectrum, the employment distribution of people with a disability across occupations in Michigan is quite different from that of individuals without a disability.  Those with a disability are under-represented in high-paying careers of Management, Business, Science, and Arts (28 versus 37 percent) and over-represented in Production, Transportation, Material Moving, Service, and Sales and Office Occupations. (Figure 31)

Industry and Occupational Employment of Persons with a Disability in Michigan, 2017

 

Veterans

There were 552,362 veterans of all wars in Michigan in 2017.  Vietnam veterans are by far the largest group in both Michigan and the U.S. (38 and 36 percent), followed the two Gulf Wars (29 percent in Michigan).  About 9 percent of all veterans were from the Korean War and 4 percent from World War II. (ACS, 2017 1-Year estimates, Table S2101)

The veteran population in both Michigan and the U.S. is predominantly male (93 and 91 percent) and White (85 and 77 percent). About 11 percent of Michigan veterans are Black or African American and 2 percent are Hispanic of any race.  Over half (55 percent or about 304,500) of veterans in Michigan are age 65 or older.  This is in contrast with the non-veteran population which is much younger, with 63 percent between the ages of 18 and 54 years.

Educational Attainment of Veterans in Michigan, 2017

Veterans comprise a greater share of individuals with a high school diploma/equivalent, or some college or an associate degree than non-veterans (around 71 versus 61 percent).  On the other hand, the proportion of veterans with a bachelor’s degree or higher is about 8 percentage points below that of non-veterans in the same category (22.3 versus almost 30 percent). (Figure 32). The labor participation rate of veterans is like the rate of non-veterans in both Michigan and the U.S. (between 72 and 75 percent in 2017).  Veterans experienced lower rates of unemployment in 2017 in both Michigan and the U.S. (4.4 versus between 5.3 and 5.8 percent).

Veterans earned more than the average income for the civilian population 18 years of age and older.  The median income for veterans of $37,156 in Michigan in 2017 was $8,500 above the median income for non-veterans.  Nationwide, veterans earned over $10,500 more than the non-veterans on average.  Consequently, poverty rates were lower among veterans relative to non-veterans (7.2 versus 13.0 percent in Michigan in 2017).

Veterans displayed double the rate of individuals with a disability than non-veterans in 2017 in Michigan (31.9 versus 15.7 percent).  The same pattern is observed nationwide (29.5 versus 14.2 percent). (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2017 1-Year Estimates, Table S2101)

The numerical distribution of veterans across the state mimics the size of the total population in each county.  Consequently, the top ten counties with the largest count of veterans include Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, Ingham, Ottawa, Kalamazoo, and Saginaw.

However, in terms of the proportion of veterans in the total population, counties of Northern Lower and Upper Peninsula of Michigan rank at the top (Keweenaw, Alcona, Ontonagon, Iosco, Montmorency, Crawford, Presque Isle, Iron, Benzie, and Oscoda). (Figure 33)

 Distribution of Veterans by County, 2017

American Indian and Alaska Native, Alone

American Indians and Alaska Natives Labor Force Status, 2015-2017 (Population 16+ Years Old) 

The estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that Michigan’s population of American Indians and Alaska Natives in the working age (16 years and older) rose by 3.2 percent (+1,300) between 2015 and 2017.  The labor participation rate and the employment-population ratios all grew by around 3 percentage points as well.  The unemployment rate fell by 0.8 percentage points over the two-year period. (Figure 34)

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, Alone

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders Labor Force Status, 2008-2017 (Population 16+ Years Old)

Because this is a small population group in Michigan, only five-year estimates are available for analysis.  The group’s unemployment rate declined during the period following the Great Recession by about 7 percentage points (from 12.2 percent to 5.3 percent).  This decline is mostly due to more people being employed as a result of generally greater job availability overall.  The labor force participation rate was up by a full percentage point and the employment to population ratio increased by two percentage points. (Figure 35)

 Individuals Living Below the Poverty Line

In 2015, 15.8 percent of Michigan’s population lived in poverty (a little above the nation’s poverty rate of 14.7 percent in the same year).  By 2017, the rate of individuals living under the poverty line in Michigan had declined by 1.6 percentage points to 14.2 percent.  As the economy of the state continues to expand, more individuals are able to secure jobs and pull out of poverty. (Figure 36)

 Poverty Rates by Age and Sex (2017)

Children (age 18 and younger) and women are more likely to live in poverty in Michigan and the U.S.  The labor market indicators of individuals living below the poverty line display similar patterns in the state and nationwide.  In 2015, 51.1 percent of prime working-age individuals living in poverty in Michigan (49.9 percent nationwide) participated in the labor force.  About 37.7 percent of these individuals had a job, resulting in an unemployment rate of 26.2 percent.  In 2017, many individuals have graduated from poverty as seen earlier (about 95,300).  The labor participation rate of those still in poverty has reduced by about 3 percentage points to 48.3 percent (47.5 percent nationwide).  The employment ratio also decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 36.2 percent, and the unemployment rate declined by more than 1.2 percentage points to 25.0 percent. (Figure 36)

Older Individuals

The WIOA defines “older individuals” as those who are 55 and older.

 The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that in 2017, a little over 3.0 million “older individuals” lived in Michigan (in households and group quarters), up 111,000 from the 2015 level.  About 1,400,000 were between the age of 55 and 64; 978,000 between the age of 65 and 74; and 687,000 in the 75 and older age bracket. (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2017 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301)

 An aging population and the Great Recession resulted in workers staying longer in the labor force.  The trend continues today, with the labor market status of all groups of older workers showing the same pattern.  The labor force participation rate of persons between the ages of 55 and 59 in Michigan continued to rise, from 67.5 percent in 2015 to 70.2 percent in 2017.  The proportion of employed individuals in this age group also rose, from 64.5 percent in 2015 to 67.5 percent in 2017.  The unemployment rate for this group inched down by 0.6 percent to 3.9 percent over the two-year period.

 About 52.7 percent of the 60- to 64-year-old individuals still participated in the labor force in 2017 (up 3.6 percentage points since 2015), with an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent (down 0.4 percentage points since 2015).

 In 2017, the labor force participation rate of 65- to 74-year-olds was estimated at 21.3 percent (up 0.7 percent from 2015).  The group’s employment-population ratio was also up 0.7 percent from the 2015 level to 20.5 percent.  The unemployment rate was down to 3.4 percent from 3.9 percent two years before in 2015.

 Lastly, about 6.0 percent of 687,000 individuals who were 75 and older in Michigan in 2017 continued to stay active in the labor force, with a 2.4 percent unemployment rate.  In 2015, the labor force participation rate of this age group was 4.8 percent (out of 662,000 individuals). (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2017 1-Year Estimates, Table S2301)

 Individuals with Limited English Ability

Labor Force Status of Individuals with Limited English Ability, 2014-2017

In the population section of this analysis, it was noted that the main factor behind recent population growth in Michigan was international migration.  With more people coming to Michigan from foreign countries, it is expected that the number of individuals who speak English “less than very well” will also increase.  Between 2014 and 2017, that number rose by 17,700 (+5.8 percent) to a total of about 324,759.  In 2017, about 45 percent of these individuals who were 16 years and older (about 132,600) did not participate in the labor force, representing a labor force participation rate of 54.9 percent (up 1.3 percentage points since 2014).  Just as for the general population, the unemployment rate of this group also has shown a significant drop of 3.8 percentage points over the 2014 and 2017 period. (Figure 37)

 A distribution of individuals who speak English “less than very well” across Michigan shows the top counties in terms of the share of total county adult population (16+ years old) being Kent, Macomb, Ingham, Wayne, and Oakland in 2017.  In terms of the total number of persons speaking English “less than very well,” Wayne County is at the top of the list, followed by Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Ingham, and Washtenaw counties.  These are Michigan counties which count the highest numbers of “New Americans,” who, by definition, might have a first language other than English. (Figure 38)

 Distribution of Individuals Who Speak English Less Than Very Well by County, 2017

Long-term Unemployed Individuals

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines long-term unemployed individuals as those who are unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

Duration of Unemployment in Michigan, 2000-2019

In 2019 (October 2018 – September 2019), Michigan counted around 204,400 unemployed individuals (i.e., actively looking for a job and available to take up one if offered).  Of these individuals, 36,600 (17.9 percent) had been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.  This represents a drop of 4.9 percent (-4,200) from the previous year.

Long-term unemployed as a share of the total number of unemployed peaked in 2010, a year after the Great Recession, when almost half of all unemployed individuals had been so for 27 weeks or more.  The 2019 share of long-term unemployed is still almost six times higher than the 2000 ratio of only 3.5 percent of the total number of unemployed.

In 2019, the mean duration of unemployment was 19.1 weeks, while the median was 8.8 weeks.  Men continued to experience a longer average period of unemployment with a mean of 22.2 weeks and a median of 10.4 weeks (women: 15.5 and 8.1, respectively).  Blacks recorded longer periods of unemployment, with a median duration three weeks longer than that of Whites (11.1 versus 8.3). (Figure 39)

Workforce Skills Gap Analysis

The Unified State Plan asks to describe apparent “skill gaps” in the state’s labor market.  The Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives conducted a study on occupational demand and supply to identify occupations in supply-demand balance, shortage, or surplus.  For this purpose, the study compared job demand (online job postings, annual projected job openings, and projected occupational employment growth rate) to job supply (current employment, recent employment change, program completers, recent program completers change, and Pure Michigan Talent Connect resumes).[5]

The study recognized about 220 non-degreed occupations (NDOs), of which 54 occupations (25 percent) demonstrated some level of shortage; 119 (54 percent) of NDOs appeared to have supply and demand aligned.  The remaining 21 percent had some level of surplus.  The top largest NDOs had aligned demand and supply, including Retail Salespersons, Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, including fast food, and Office Clerks, General.  Some notable weak shortages in non-degreed occupations include Home Health Aides; Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters; Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers; and Restaurant Cooks.

 The largest major group of NDOs presenting a labor surplus was Production, with more than half of the 48 occupations in the category.  Examples include Multiple Machine Tools; Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic, Engine and other Machine Assemblers; Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic; and Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic

 Of the 146 degreed occupations (DOs), 56 (38 percent) show some level of shortage.  Nearly half (48 percent) of occupations demonstrate alignment between supply and demand.  Only 20 occupations (14 percent) show some level of surplus.  Examples of DOs presenting some shortages include Registered Nurses, General and Operations Managers, Mechanical Engineers, and Elementary School Teachers, except special education.

 Degreed occupations with shortages include many education careers such as Kindergarten Teachers, except special education; Middle School Teachers, except specialand career/technical education;Career/Technical Education Teachers, secondary school; as well as Librarians.  Many of the most popular health care careers such as Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurse, Dental Hygienists, and Physical Therapists are expected to be in shortages.

 Only 16 (11 percent) of the 146 degreed occupations, showed a weak surplus.  The majority were in the management group (Chief Executives, Administrative Services Managers, Industrial Production Managers, Architectural and Engineering Managers, and Education Administrators, post-secondary).  Some were in the Business, Social Services, and Arts career groups.

 Figure 40 shows that all levels of degreed occupations have higher average wages than any level of non-degreed occupations.  Non-degreed occupations are typically larger and have higher rates of turnover leading to more annual openings than degreed occupations.  It is also notable that growth rates for degreed occupations that show a surplus have the lowest 10-year growth rate of any degreed occupation group but are projected to grow more quickly (5.8 percent) than aligned non-degreed occupations (5.2 percent).

Alignment of All Occupations by Wage and Projected Growth Rate

All occupations continue to have some demand for new workers, but this demand may not line up with supply.  New workers are needed to fill holes left by occupational growth or existing employees retiring, moving to new occupations.  Overall this analysis has shown occupations in the Michigan labor market are more often aligned or weakly misaligned but should be analyzed on an individual basis. 

[1] Individuals with barriers to employment include displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farm workers (as defined at Section 167(i) of the WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and

[1] Long-term unemployed individuals.

[2] Veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.

[3] Leach, Alan; Tarver, Ashley; and Guthrie, Eric. 2019. “Michigan’s Population Projections to 2045.” Michigan’s Labor Market News, Vol. 75, Issue 1. Lansing, MI: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.

[4] The U3 unemployment rate is the total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate).

[5] Linskey, Evan. 2018. “An Analysis of Occupational Supply and Demand in the Michigan Labor Market.” Michigan’s Labor Market News, Vol. 74, Issue 10. Lansing, MI: Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget.