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  • II. Strategic Elements

    The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system. The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs. Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs.

II. a. 1. B. Workforce Analysis (B.I - B.IV)

The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the current workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment, as defined in section 3 of WIOA.* This population must include individuals with disabilities among other groups** in the State and across regions identified by the State. This includes: Individuals with barriers to employment include displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals. ** Veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.

  • i. Employment and Unemployment

    Provide an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.

  • ii. Labor Market Trends

    Provide an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations.
  • iii. Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce

    Provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.

  • iv. Skill Gaps

    Describe apparent ‘skill gaps’.

Current Narrative:

D. Demographic Data and Data on Target Populations

This section provides an overview of California’s population, major demographic groups, and target populations that WIOA is intended to serve.

Demography

  • California has the largest population in the nation with over 38 million people.
  • Women made up the largest share of the state’s population. Over 50 percent (51.1 percent) of the state’s population was made up of women in July 2015.
  • In July 2015, men made up 48.9 percent of the state’s population.
  • One out of every three (35.0 percent) Californians was Hispanic in July 2015. The overall population of Hispanics in the state increased from 9.5 million in July 2010 to 10.6 million in July 2015. Just over 40 percent of the state’s Hispanic population were within the age groups of 16 and 24 (22.6 percent), and 25 and 34 (21.5 percent).
  • Hispanics have grown at a faster rate than non–Hispanics over the past five years in California. Between July 2010 and July 2015, the state’s Hispanic population has grown by 11.2 percent, outpacing the growth rate of non–Hispanics (4.7 percent) by 6.5 percentage points.
  • In July 2015, whites made up 75.5 percent of the state’s total population and year–over this demographic group increased by 76,700 people. This includes Hispanics who self–identify as white.
  • Asians made up 15.6 percent of the state’s population in July 2015. The percent share of Asians in California has increased from 14.8 percent in July 2014 to 15.6 percent in July 2015.
  • The number of blacks in the state has increased and this group’s percent share has held steady at 6.4 percent over the past two years.
  • American Indian, Alaskan Native and Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders made up less than 2 percent of the state’s total population in July 2015.

Educational Attainment

  • More than one out of every three Californians had an associates or a bachelor’s degree or higher in July 2015. Just over nine million people in California had a bachelor’s degree or higher and 2.4 million people had an associate degree.
  • The overall number of persons with either an associate or bachelor’s degree or higher has increased over the past five years. Between July 2010 and July 2015, the number of persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher increased by just over 1 million people.
  • Over this same period, the number of individuals with an associate degree increased by 140,700 people.
  • The number of persons over 18 with less than a high school diploma has been on the decline.
  • Roughly 5.8 million people had less than a high school diploma in 2010, but that number has steadily declined and hovered around 5.5 million people in 2015.
  • Over this five–year period, the percent share of persons with less than a high school diploma fell from 20.5 percent (July 2010) to 18.1 percent (July 2015).
  • The percent shares of high school graduates with no college experience and those with some college and no degree remained relatively unchanged over the past five years. High school graduates made up 23.4 percent of the state’s population in July 2010 and 23.7 percent in July 2015, despite increasing by 564,900 people over that period of time.
  • Tables 8, 9 and 11 provide information on educational attainment by race, ethnicity, and nativity.
  • Educational attainment levels for African American and Latinos tend to be lower than for Non–Latino whites.
  • California has a large population of foreign born residents with a lower level of educational attainment.

Veterans

  • In July 2015, California accounted for 8.6 percent of the nation’s 21.3 million veterans. Over 1.8 million veterans resided in California in 2015. Year–over–year, the state experienced an increase of roughly 16,000 veterans between July 2014 and July 2015.
  • Twenty–eight percent of the state’s military veterans served during the Vietnam era (August 1964 to April 1975). During the Gulf War I (August 1990 to August 2001) and Gulf War II (September 2001 or later) eras, over 200,000 military veterans were involved in each military campaign.
  • California’s 188,400 women veterans made up 10.2 percent of the veterans’ population statewide in July 2015.

Immigrant Workers

  • In 2011, 27% of Californian’s are foreign born; and make up about one–third of the workforce.
  • Immigrants are more likely than U.S.–born residents to be employed but make less money.
  • in 2011, 66% of immigrants were in the labor force, compared to 62% of the U.S–born.
  • The median income for households with foreign–born householders in 2011 was 20.9% lower than that for households with U.S–born householders ($48,851 compared to $61,752). And foreign–born residents are more likely than the U.S.–born to live in poverty (18.9% compared to 15.7%).
  • Foreign–born residents represent more than 30% of the population of seven California counties: Santa Clara, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Mateo, Imperial, Alameda, and Orange.
  • Half of the children in California have at least one immigrant parent.
  • About eight of every ten immigrants (81%) in California are working–age adults (age 18 to 64), compared to four of every seven (57%) U.S.–born California residents. This means that more than a third (34%) of working–age adults in the state are immigrants.
  • According to the Department of Homeland Security, almost half (47%) of California’s immigrants are naturalized U.S. citizens, and another 26% have some other legal status (including green cards and visas.[4]

Given federal relief provided in 2012, the numbers of WIOA eligible immigrants are expected to rise given the clarity shed by Federal DOL regarding DACA recipients’ eligibility for WIOA services.

Californians with Disabilities

  • In July 2015, there were 2.9 million working age Californians with a disability, nearly 10 percent of the state’s general population.[5]
  • The unemployment rate for persons with a disability in the civilian labor force was 13.1 percent in July 2015, more than twice as high as the state unemployment rate (6.2 percent).
  • In July 2014, nearly 40 percent of persons with a disability within California’s labor force had an associate degree or higher. Roughly, 30 percent (28.2 percent) of disabled persons had a bachelor’s degree or higher and 10.4 percent had an associate degree.
  • Members of California’s civilian labor force with and without a disability had comparable levels of educational attainment, with the largest difference being between shares with a bachelor’s degree or higher. One–third of non–disabled persons (35.4 percent) had a bachelor’s degree or higher, 7 percentage points more than the share for persons with a disability (28.2 percent).
  • The labor force participation rate for disabled persons was 19.7 percent in July 2014, 1.3 percentage points higher than its rate in July 2013 (18.4 percent).

Youth Employment Trends

  • In July 2015, workers between the ages of 16 and 24 made up 13.1 percent of the state’s workforce. Over the past five years, their percent share of the workforce has remained unchanged at 13.0 percent.
  • The unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 13.8 percent in July 2015.
  • Nearly two–thirds (63.6 percent) of all 16 to 24 year olds in California were employed in either the leisure and hospitality, or trade, transportation, and utilities sector in July 2015.
  • In terms of occupations, 44 percent or roughly 1.2 million 16 to 24 year olds in California were employed in a sales (23.0 percent) or service (21.0 percent) occupation in July 2015.
  • In July 2015, over 85 percent of the state’s 16 to 24 year olds were not in the labor force because they were in school.

Role of In–Migration

Migration is defined as the movement of people from one location to another permanent place of residence. The reasons why people migrate are due to push and pull factors. Push factors such as retirement, movement of a business, or lack of work often drive people from their current place of residence. A healthy economy and a pleasant climate are examples of pull factors.

  • According to the latest figures from the American Community Survey, 485,500 people migrated out of California in 2013 and 581,700 migrated in from the nation’s forty–nine states.
  • In terms of global migration, one out of every four Californians was foreign born in 2014. Roughly 9.7 million California residents were either foreign–born citizens by naturalization or foreign–born non–citizens.
  • The number of foreign–born non–citizens has been on a steady decline since 2010, as this group of foreign born went from 5.2 million in 2010 to 4.8 million in 2014. In contrast, the number of foreign–born citizens by naturalization has increased by 7.2 percent going from 4.5 million in 2010 to 4.8 million in 2014.
  • Table 10 provides data on nativity by age for California and illustrates that over a quarter of the population is foreign born.

Ex–Offenders

  • Data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ Survey of State Criminal History Information Systems indicates that 27.8 percent or roughly 8 million Californians 18 years or older had a criminal record on file with the state in 2012.
  • California’s parole population has been on the decline since 2007 and this trend is forecasted to continue through 2015. Between 2007 and 2013, the state’s parole population decreased from 126,000 to 51,000, a decline of 59.4 percent. From 2013 to 2015, parolee numbers are projected to decline by 22 percent, from 51,000 in 2013 to 40,000 in 2015.

Homeless

  • California had 114,000 sheltered and unsheltered homeless people in 2014, roughly 20 percent of the nation’s homeless population.
  • Year–over–year, the state’s homeless population declined by 4,600 persons (3.9 percent).
  • Between 2007 and 2014, California’s homeless population dropped by 25,000 persons.
  • 30 percent of California’s homeless population was located in Los Angeles in 2014.

Table 11: Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity for California

Educational Attainment by Race, 25 Years and OverWhite AlonePercent of White Alone, TotalBlack or African American AlonePercent of Black or African American Alone, TotalAmerican Indian and Alaska Native AlonePercent of American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, TotalAsian AlonePercent of Asian Alone, TotalNative Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander AlonePercent of Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, TotalSome Other Race AlonePercent of Some Other Race Alone, TotalTwo or More RacesPercent of Two or more races, Total
Less than high school diploma2,550,37016.1%174,09012.1%45,63425.2%489,86413.9%14,72616.1%1,207,38844.9%105,20915.2%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)3,315,40620.9%349,00724.2%47,50726.2%510,06114.5%28,53331.2%679,32925.2%136,19119.6%
Some college or associate’s degree4,966,70931.4%603,77441.8%63,14734.8%802,17022.8%34,43737.6%579,14521.5%251,27836.2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher4,996,55131.6%316,21021.9%25,14513.9%1,721,43148.9%13,88615.2%226,1248.4%201,68829.0%
Total15,829,036100.0%1,443,081100.0%181,433100.0%3,523,526100.0%91,582100.0%2,691,986100.0%694,366100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey, 5–Year Estimates

Table 12

Educational Attainment, 25 Years and Over Hispanic or LatinoPercent of Hispanic or Latino, TotalWhite alone, not Hispanic or LatinoPercent of White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, Total
Less than high school diploma3,178,61841.2%683,0376.1%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)1,883,87724.4%2,195,35619.7%
Some college or associate’s degree1,821,64623.6%3,847,66634.5%
Bachelor’s degree or higher837,01210.8%4,441,03439.8%
Total7,721,153100.0%11,167,093100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey, 5–Year Estimates

Table 13: Nativity by Age for California

AgeBorn in state of residenceBorn in other state in the United StatesNative; born outside the United StatesForeign born
Under 5 Years2,371,89992,42220,93942,492
5 to 17 Years5,787,667379,39466,481480,924
18 to 24 Years2,857,255350,32247,701706,675
25 to 34 years2,769,455764,08965,2931,821,321
35 to 44 years1,979,606815,16377,8502,299,754
45 to 54 years2,008,8231,129,09779,6542,016,200
55 to 59 years818,936635,09532,388781,357
60 and 61 years282,099255,11910,204271,419
62 to 64 years365,994361,99413,613353,622
65 to 74 years666,381934,91723,086801,834
75 years and over466,861934,70518,840600,241
TOTAL20,374,9766,652,317456,04910,175,839

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey, 5–Year Estimates

Table 14: Nativity by Educational Attainment for California, 25 Years and Older

Educational AttainmentBorn in state of residenceBorn in other state in the United StatesNative; born outside the United StatesForeign born
Less than high school graduate849,296436,40941,2423,260,334
High school graduate (includes equivalency)2,218,7531,083,38857,7451,706,148
Some college or associate’s degree3,593,7291,912,882106,4811,687,568
Bachelor’s degree1,822,9741,411,73074,1001,444,642
Graduate of professional degree873,403985,77041,360847,056
TOTAL9,358,1555,830,179320,9288,945,748

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey, 5–Year Estimates

Other Relevant Features of the Labor Market: Churn and the Need for Skills

The labor market today is characterized by much greater volatility and puts more competitive pressure on workers to upskill than in the past.[6]

  • Firms, and even whole industries, now come and go with greater frequency, changing the kinds of occupations and skills in demand in regional labor markets.
  • Globalization has placed many California workers in direct competition with workers in developing nations.
  • New technologies have eliminated some jobs but also have raised the skills needed to perform others, especially in occupations that rely on science, technology, engineering, and math.
  • Increasingly, workers need postsecondary education and training to keep–up as well as access middle–skill jobs in an ever–changing, technologically reliant economy.

Labor market churn is significant and puts low–skill workers at the most risk.

  • Every year, roughly 30–40 percent of U.S. workers are hired into a new job or leave their old job, and the state has very few institutions or programs designed to deal with this level of job transition experience.[7]
  • Job turnover typically affects workers at different strata, with low–skill and inexperienced workers, typically youth and adults that are basic skills deficient, less likely to sustain employment or access middle–skill occupational opportunities.
  • While moving from job to job has benefits, parallel movement from one low–skill job to another typically hurts workers.[8]

E. Table 15: California Middle Skill Supply/Demand Table, 2012–2022

California Middle Skill[9]
Supply/Demand Table

Occupational TitleAverage Annual Total Projected Job Openings[11]Supply
AA/AS Attainment
Supply
Certificate Attainment
Demand
HWOL Job Ads[12]
2014 First Quarter Wages[10]
Median Hourly Wage
2014 First Quarter Wages[10]
Median Annual Wage
Registered Nurses9,2305,08545858,060$45.87$95,415
Teacher Assistants4,47049378,743–– [13]$29,623
Heavy and Tractor–Trailer Truck Drivers[14]4,4100034,706$19.77$41,117
Nursing Assistants4,18003023,805$13.66$28,426
Medical Assistants3,4503551,1718,003$15.83$32,940
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses3,0403067118,245$25.11$52,225
Computer User Support Specialists2,490446319,571$26.24$54,582
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education1,820711757,815$15.26$31,727
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists1,7501301,3884,967$11.07$23,045
Dental Assistants1,6401454297,207$17.71$36,850

F. Policy Implications of Labor Market Analysis

While California is enjoying resurgent economic growth, the recovery has been uneven with some regions of the state and some populations faring significantly better than others. Typically workers with higher levels of training and education fare better in the labor market while those areas of the state that are experiencing more rapid growth and lower levels of unemployment have occupations and industry sectors that require a characteristically more skilled workforce.

As California continues to increase economic growth, the workforce and education system will need to address the conditions of the new labor market by adapting to employer needs and by building and maintaining career pathways embedded in growing industry sectors.

Much of the job growth in the next decade will be in middle–skill occupations particularly in jobs where replacement needs are significant as a result of workforce retirements. These jobs require education beyond high school but not a four–year degree and provide opportunities for economic mobility. According to the National Skills Coalition’s analysis of California’s middle–skill job needs, the state is facing a substantial shortfall of middle–skill workers over the next ten years.

By focusing on these middle skills jobs the state can align its workforce and education programs to serve populations with barriers to employment as well as the business community. The chapters that follow outline the state’s plan to achieve these complimentary objectives by making strategic investments in career pathway programs that serve regional industry sector needs.


[1] However, July 2015 unemployment rates remained highest among workers who had not completed high school (10.5 percent) and lowest among workers who had obtained at least a Bachelor’s Degree (3.8 percent).

[2] The “employed” are persons 16 years and over in the civilian non–institutional population that worked at least one hour as a paid employee during a reference week, that includes the 12th day of the month. The “unemployed” are persons 16 years and older who had no employment, but were available for work and made efforts to find employment within the previous four weeks.

[3] www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=258.

[4] http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=258

[5] The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines a person with a disability as any person who has a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more major life activities; has a record of such impairment; or is regarded as having such an impairment. Examples of major life activities include: walking, talking, hearing, seeing, breathing, performing manual tasks, or caring for oneself.

[6] Benner, Chris. “Opening the Black Box: Space, Time and the Geography of the Labor Process.” September 2011.
http://www.slideshare.net/ChrisBenner/opening–the–black–box–space–time–and–the–geography–of–the–labor–process.

[7] See Benner, September 2011.

[8] Stoker, R. & Wilson, L. (2006) When Work Is Not Enough: State and Federal Policies to Support Needy Workers. The Brookings Institute:
Washington D.C.

[9] The Bureau of Labor Statistics develops and assigns education and training categories to each occupation. For more information on these categories, please see http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_education_training_system.htm

[10] EDD/LMID Occupational Employment Statistics; Median hourly and annual wages are the point at which half of workers earn more and half earn less. The wages are from the 2014 first quarter and do not include self–employed or unpaid family workers.

[11] For the 2012–2022 period, the total projected job openings reflect the sum of new and replacement jobs.

[12] The data from The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL) data series reflects occupations with the highest number of online job advertisements in 120 day period ending September 2, 2015.

[13] In occupations where workers do not work full–time all year–round, it is not possible to calculate an hourly wage.

[14] Heavy and Tractor–Trailer Truck Drivers represent an occupation where potential candidates are generally trained through private, independent truck driving schools. Training programs for this occupation may not be available at the California Community Colleges.